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While it may be too early to count victories in this coronavirus pandemic, Vietnam has likely moved beyond its Southeast Asian neighbors along this front.
On Thursday (April 16), when a two-week national shutdown expired, Hanoi extended strict restrictions to just 12 “high-risk” cities and provinces out of 63. 16 other medium-risk towns had more leeway to open stores in -Essential products and services.
Total cases of infection in the country: 268.
The governments of neighboring countries have been busy applying movement restrictions or expanding them. Myanmar extended its facility quarantine period for returnees from 14 days to 21. Laos extended its national blockade by two weeks to May 3. Indonesia expanded the scope of the Jakarta blockade to include nearby cities.
Vietnam’s cautious reestablishment of business life will be instructive as governments elsewhere have been forced to weigh the health threat posed by Covid-19 against the economic pain of containing the virus through blockades.
Analysts largely agree that Vietnam, with one of the lowest gross domestic products per capita within Asean, has outweighed its weight in terms of its response to the pandemic.
“Authorities have exceeded expectations on that front and rushed to close borders and restrict movement in areas of the country where case groups were developing,” says Eurasia Group analyst Peter Mumford.
The results of a 12-country opinion poll by Ipsos Business Consulting showed that “the people of Vietnam have a generally positive feeling towards Vietnam’s state measures,” the head of his country, Mr. Phong, told The Straits Times. Quach.
In their March 12-14 poll, over 80 percent of Vietnamese respondents expected things to return to normal in June, making them more optimistic than respondents in the United States, Italy, France, Russia, Japan and India.
However, the survey also reflected growing anxiety about the financial consequences. Vietnam tied China with having the highest proportion of people who felt that the coronavirus would have a financial impact on them and their family. About 64 percent considered the virus to pose a “high” or “very high” threat to their work and business.
Millions of jobs are at stake in Vietnam, one of the world’s largest garment exporters, as fashion firms in western markets cancel orders or delay shipments of finished products.
Unlike Thailand, which is providing 5,000 baht monthly support for those who lost their jobs, and Singapore, which has several financial reliefs, including a one-time $ 600 installment to each adult to help during this period, Vietnam has considerably less means to extend long-term bailouts because the budget deficit constantly increases, economists say.
Earlier this month, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc approved a relatively modest 62 trillion dong (S $ 3.7 billion) rescue package that, among other things, would award employees who had their work contracts suspended 1.8 million Dong a month, for up to three months.
But economists say the size of its informal economy, estimated at 30 percent of its GDP, also makes it hard for aid to hit the hardest hit. Workers in this category include street vendors and waiters in small restaurants.
“Government policy cannot reach these people, because they do not belong to any specified target group,” said Dr. Pham The Anh, who heads the macroeconomics unit at the Hanoi National University of Economics.
“They do not have employment contracts and are not classified as people who lose their jobs. They do not even belong to what is classified as ‘poor’ households.”
The Vietnam government, “quite sensitive to public criticism,” faces a dilemma, says Dr. Nguyen Duc Thanh, founder and chief adviser to the Vietnam Institute of Economic and Political Research.
With its daily increase in new infections constantly low, Hanoi is in relatively unknown territory. It must keep the public optimistic enough to endure the temporary financial pain, while relaxing closure measures to restore livelihoods and prevent a surge in cases that will reignite public concern, Dr. Thanh says.
“The situation must be handled with great skill, given that the finances of this government are very limited,” says Dr. Thanh. “So far it has done quite well, but … no one knows how long this will last.”
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