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SINGAPORE: Imagine traveling to your vacation destination on a plane that is only half full of passengers, attended by masked cabin crew.
That could be the “new normal” for airlines likely to continue safe distancing measures even after the COVID-19 outbreak subsides, aviation analysts said.
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Economy airline Jetstar Asia, which resumed partial operations last Tuesday (April 21), said there will be no more than 112 seats available on each passenger flight. That’s about 60% of capacity, as part of efforts to ensure safe spacing on board.
Passengers and crew members must wear masks.
On-board services, such as meals, will also be reduced, and only water will be served on flights.
READ: Jetstar Asia will resume some flights to Manila, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur
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Several other airlines, such as Air New Zealand, KLM, and United Airlines, are also taking steps to ensure safe distancing, for example, by blocking the purchase of certain seats.
“It is all too early when airlines try to discover the new rule,” said independent aviation analyst Brendan Sobie, noting that blocking seats is a common measure at the moment.
However, seat blocking has had little direct impact on airline revenue at this time, as most flights are operating at “well below 50 percent” of passenger capacity anyway, Sobie pointed out. Cargo is currently the main source of revenue for airlines, he added.
CHEAP END OF TRIP?
According to the general director of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Alexandre de Juniac, the application of safe distancing in airplanes would require that at least a third of the airplane’s seats remain empty.
Airlines would have to raise ticket prices by at least 50 percent to make a minimal profit, he suggested in a briefing on April 21.
“It means two things: flying at the same price, selling the ticket at the same average price as before, and then losing an enormous amount of money, making it impossible to fly for any airline.” Or it increases the ticket price for a similar product by at least 50 percent, and then you can fly with minimal profit, ”he said.
“And that means that if social distancing prevails, cheap travel ends.”
READ: COVID-19: AirAsia tests PPE suits for cabin crew
IATA’s prediction of rising costs is “absolutely correct,” Shukor Yusof, founder of aviation consultancy Endau Analytics, told CNA.
“Just like after September 11, where security needs increased dramatically, there will be costs involved in imposing additional new requirements before boarding an aircraft,” he said.
Shukor added that the need to safely distance themselves amid concerns about COVID-19 also raises “pertinent questions” about the business model of low-budget carriers, which generally carry as many passengers as possible to win money.
“Will 180 people feel comfortable being together for two or three hours on an airplane?” he said.
“Until a vaccine is found and, at least in a year, low-cost airlines will have a hard time filling planes, and therefore will not make money flying passengers who cannot allow carriers to break even. “he added. .
“If they don’t make money, they can’t sustain the business.”
READ: Singapore’s aviation industry is “extremely vulnerable” to the consequences of COVID-19, experts say
Assistant Professor Terence Fan, an economist at the University of Singapore Administration who specializes in transportation, believes that airlines can continue to offer cheaper tickets for some time after the current crisis calms down, to encourage more people to fly.
He does not see safe distancing or other similar measures continuing in the long term, noting that airlines are likely to want to attract more passengers to fly once demand for travel increases again.
SAFE DISTANCE FROM A POSSIBLE POINT OF SALE: ANALYST
While it’s difficult to say what the new normal might be for airlines after the world emerges from COVID-19, Assistant Professor Fan said that given current concerns about the coronavirus, airlines can simply introduce safe distancing as a point. of sale to recover passengers.
“At this point, airlines are very desperate to get people on flights. This social distancing is a way to recover them, “he said.
Airlines may be watching their competitors closely to see what kinds of measures attract passengers, said assistant professor Fan, adding that this could include health checks such as those carried out by Emirates.
Last week, Emirates became the first airline to conduct COVID-19 on-site tests for passengers, and the carrier worked with the Dubai Health Authority to test for all passengers on a repatriation flight from Dubai to Tunisia.
Airports such as Tokyo Narita International Airport and Hong Kong International Airport have also introduced COVID-19 tests for passengers from “high risk” destinations.
“This could be the new normal, at least in the short term,” said Shukor. These measures could be in place for air transport for the next two to three years, he suggested.
However, Shukor said passengers may also be discouraged by measures such as the need to wear masks, and this can deter both leisure and business travelers, which will have “a negative result in an airline economy.”
This is likely to have an impact on jobs in the industry as well, he added.
“Things are still very fluid in the aviation industry, but massive job losses are a fact now, both on board the plane and on the ground at airports.”
With travel restrictions in many countries, IATA estimates that global airline losses will reach $ 314 billion this year.
Last week Virgin Australia, which belongs in part to Singapore Airlines, announced that it had entered voluntary administration due to the impact of the coronavirus.
