WHEN WILL ALL OF THIS END?



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The virus is constantly mutating. A new strain is spreading. But, fortunately, coronaviruses accumulate mutations relatively slowly compared to other viruses. Influenza, for example, can “rearrange” its genome between strains and thus avoid resistance each year. Coronaviruses find it much more difficult.

Dr. Milos Babic, a San Diego neurobiologist and molecular biologist, told “Blic” that the new corona mutants currently cannot circumvent vaccine resistance and as far as the virus itself is concerned, it is naturally occurring. ” , which can be clearly seen in its genome. “

The fight against the corona virus lasts a year. There were several stories about its origin, as it is related, if it remains on surfaces, if it mutates … What can we say for sure at this point?

– The new virus has become the workplace of the entire world scientific community and we have learned a lot. It is transmitted through the air, in droplets. Mouth drops released during speech or cough are larger and contain more viral particles. Droplets from the lungs (breath mist when breathing in winter) are smaller and generally require more direct or longer exposure for infection. Although in theory a virus can cause an infection with a single particle, fewer viruses entering the body means a lower chance of becoming infected and a higher chance of mild illness if infection occurs. So he insists on distancing himself and wearing masks.

Masks reduce the range of droplets that leave the lungs and mouth of an infected person. You wear a mask primarily to protect other people from yourself in case you are unknowingly infected. Other people protect you from themselves by wearing masks. This is a simple exchange of basic social responsibilities.

Is there much talk about virus mutations?

– The virus is constantly mutating. A new strain is spreading, about 70 percent more contagious. But, fortunately, coronaviruses accumulate mutations relatively slowly compared to other viruses. Influenza, for example, can “rearrange” its genome between strains and thus avoid resistance each year. Coronaviruses find it much more difficult. Currently, the new mutants cannot avoid resistance to vaccines. The virus is naturally occurring, which looks great on its genome. We also know the probable pathways by which it developed (crossing pangolin strains with bat strains), and there are no traces of artificial interference. The appearance of the new virus is no surprise. This happens all the time and will always happen, that’s nature. The AIDS virus originated from the primate virus SIV, the MERS coronavirus passed to humans through camels, Spanish swine fever, etc., just a fraction of the examples from the last hundred years. Not so long ago, in 2003, the SARS-1 coronavirus threatened to do what we have now, but it was stopped and eradicated by the heroic efforts of virologists and doctors (and huge quarantines). This time we drop the ball and see how much it costs us. Instead of talking about artificial sources, we must understand that this happens constantly and prepare for the next case.

Instead of talking about artificial sources, we must understand that this happens all the time and prepare for the next case, says the doctor.

Photo: Mitar Mitrović / RAS Serbia

Instead of talking about artificial sources, we must understand that this happens all the time and prepare for the next case, says the doctor.

Where does the virus come from? What we do know is that it is a systemic disease, what does that mean exactly?

– The virus begins to infect almost always in the upper respiratory tract (nose, mouth, throat). From there it goes to the lungs, where most people have the biggest problem. During this process, the virus can infect various cells in the bloodstream and lymphatic system, thus spreading throughout the body. It can directly infect the heart muscle, kidneys, and many other organs. Much of the damage occurs because it causes the blood to clot; thicker blood is very difficult to pass through peripheral capillaries, leaving various tissues in the body without oxygen. Systemic means that the virus affects the entire body.

Chronic patients, people with associated diseases, malignancy are under attack … But we also had examples of healthy people who had a severe clinical picture, and some even died …

– Statistical figures are very difficult to understand if they are not put into context. I will take as an example: 42 years old, male, normal average body weight, without other comorbidities. I am in a low risk group, 0.2 percent mortality from the virus. It seems like a very small number, a fraction of a percentage, right? But in practice, if 500 people like me get sick, one will die; about 75 will end up in hospital, 18 in intensive care. From this point of view, this “small risk” does not seem so small. When you contract the virus, you fill out a lottery ticket and hope to get a mild illness as your reward. The younger and healthier you are, the better your chances; but the lottery is always the lottery.

How we will react to the disease depends on immunity, immunologists recommend vitamins C and D and probiotics, zinc and selenium. What is your opinion, is vitamin D powerful enough to destroy the virus in the so-called first line of defense?

– Vitamin D is important if you have low blood levels; in which case, it should definitely be supplemented. Beyond that, in general, doctors around the world have tried various versions of various supplements without great success. Furthermore, there are no correlations with previously known states on this subject. For example, in several countries in the world (Turkey, India, many others) there are a large number of people who have very low levels of vitamin D in their blood, especially among the elderly population. If vitamin D produced a really huge effect, we would see a much greater plague in those states than in those with better average levels. But there is no such effect. You should definitely always stick to what your doctor prescribes, and probiotics, vitamins, and minerals are rarely harmful. You can take them in that beginning, but don’t expect much protection from them. (The exceptions are vitamins A and E, which should never be taken alone as supplements, only on direct instructions from a doctor.)

A large percentage of people easily fight the virus, does the development of the clinical picture depend on the amount of virus ingested?

– The clinical picture depends on the amount of virus ingested, but also on many other factors. Have you had any of the four types of coronavirus that existed before and that can give you partial immunity? Do you have autoantibodies against interferon? Do you have certain genetic factors that are related to the severity of the disease? But even when you measure all of these known factors, the predictions are still very bad. Hundreds of scientific groups have tried to produce some kind of test that can determine who has a higher and lower risk of a serious disease, something important that would allow us to know when to be especially protected and who should be vaccinated first. But so far, sadly, none of these tests have been successful in practice.

The vaccines are here. What is their quality, considering that they were made in a relatively short period of time?

– In traditional studies, vaccines are tested every year, step by step. This has now been replaced by parallel studies testing a large number of volunteers at the same time; At enormous cost, tens of billions of dollars have been invested. The results that have been published so far look very good. For me, personally and professionally, vaccines seem really safe; but to really explain why I think so I would need a much longer text than this answer. So my suggestion to your readers is this: look at the vaccine from a risk assessment perspective. The virus is now endemic, it has spread so much that it will not be eradicated. So if you don’t get vaccinated, sooner or later you will get infected. The risks of the virus should be at least somewhat clear to you by now. If you are 60 years old and have heart disease, the virus is a great threat. If, like me, you are in a relatively low risk group, you still gamble with the possibility of dying because the death rate is 1 in 500. For school-age children, this black lottery is still the best, but it still causes one death for every 10,000-20,000 infected children. Also, even if you don’t take care of yourself, you should consider passing the virus to someone more vulnerable, who may be suffering because of you.

The consequences of infection can be serious, but …

What consequences can covid-19 leave after the disease?

– I’ll ask your readers to read the answer to the end before they freak out, because it starts with a list of bad things and then gives them a bigger picture. The new coronavirus leaves a wide range of damage, largely through its effect on blood density and capillary blockage. The biggest consequences are in the lungs. Most, especially the young, recover for the most part, but lung capacity remains reduced and susceptibility to future disease increases. Then a large number of patients, even those with relatively mild symptoms, show reduced heart function, while autopsies show various abnormalities and permanent changes in the heart tissue. Fewer people also have significant kidney damage. Blood clots caused by the virus also cause various brain problems. Permanent feelings of fatigue, changes and deficits in memory and emotional control, and even an increased chance of having a stroke. It is concerning that more strokes are already being seen in young people who have contracted the virus; there are still few numbers in question, just a few lives lost this year, but this is likely to continue to haunt us for years and decades.

In total, with the number of infected we have, we can expect to have more disabled people in the future; that, on average, people will have several chronic problems earlier in life, will have to start treatment and medication earlier, and will live less on average. Now when all those terrible things are recited in the crowd, let’s put them in context. Most people adapt to this damage. People notice that it is “not theirs” for two to three months, but then most feel normal again. Maybe they’ll slow down a bit, change their habits a bit, and get on with living their lives. So don’t panic, fear doesn’t help. If you’ve been lying down and now you feel fine, the only thing you have to do is the same thing that you should have done differently: take care of your health, do regular physical exercise, eat well, you know the story. Kovid damage is significant on average across the entire population, but that does not guarantee that its life span will be significantly different.

When it’s all over

How long will it take for vaccines to do their job?

– It depends on the speed of vaccination, the number of doses available, the number of people with pre-existing resistance and the willingness of people to get vaccinated. All these things are still unknown for now. This situation of ours will end when around 70-80 percent of the population becomes resilient. So, the number of people who had covid, went to bed and acquired permanent immunity; plus the number of vaccinated. Only when it crosses that boundary can we expect a true return to normalcy.

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