ESA-D. Ducros
This was course to be the year of the great rocket. At one point, four large and powerful boosters were expected to take off this year. Unfortunately, we now know for sure that none of them will.
Two years ago, Ars published an article describing the four large and powerful rockets that would debut: Arianespace’s Ariane 6, NASA’s Space Launch System, Blue Origin’s New Glenn, and United Launch Alliance Vulcan-Centaur. Our confidence in each of these boosters to be released in 2020 ranged from medium-high for Ariane 6 (oops!) To low for New Glenn and Vulcan-Centaur.
Since none of these rockets will actually debut this year, we decided to revisit the realm of heavy lifting. We’ll also add three more contenders for a launch in 2021: Japan’s H3 rocket, Northrup Grumman’s Omega booster, and SpaceX’s first Super Heavy stage. Here, we try to rank these seven vehicles for which they will launch as soon as possible. Please note that these are estimates based on very incomplete information and are surely wrong.
But hey, we’re trying. And this is actually space science.
H3 reinforcement
Geostationary Orbit Transfer Capacity (GTO): 8 tons
Current release date: Q1 2021
Confidence: medium
Our Estimated Release Date: Q2 2021
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries has stuck to a 2020 release date for its H3 rocket for a while, but that comes with an asterisk because it means “fiscal year 2020,” which runs through March 2021. At one point, the company hoped to launch The rocket during the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo, due to start later this month before the global pandemic. Now, we understand that they are facing the end of the fiscal year for takeoff.
Earlier this spring, the company said the COVID-19 pandemic had not slowed its efforts to bring the rocket to the launch pad during fiscal year 2020, and today the company continues to push hard toward that goal.
Should the H3 rocket be on a list of heavy lift rockets? The single-stick version of the H3 rocket is not a “heavy lifter,” but with four solid rocket boosters, the rocket can deliver 8 healthy tons to geostationary transfer orbit. Additionally, Japan is planning an improved second stage that could deliver more than 4 tons to the Lunar Gateway, and possibly a “heavy” version with three cores that could deliver 12 tons to lunar orbit.
Northrop Grumman
Omega
GTO capacity: 5 to 10 tons
Current Release Date: Spring 2021
Confidence: medium
Our estimated launch date: 3Q-4T 2021
Northrop Grumman continues to make progress on its solid fuel rocket, Omega, which it expects the US Air Force to select for national security launches from 2022 to 2026. The Air Force is expected to decide on two providers later this summer. .
There are some questions about whether Northrop will go ahead if it does not receive one of these awards; There seems to be a limited business case for Omega if the U.S. government doesn’t endorse it, but for now, we’ll assume it launches at least once, regardless of the Air Force decision.
Omega’s first launch does not yet have a firm date, but the company hopes to launch the Launch Complex-39B rocket during the first or second quarter of 2021. This is another rocket that does not initially qualify as a “heavy lift.” However, the company has plans for a larger version that will double Omega’s lifting capacity to geostationary transfer orbit. So we are including it for now.
Ariane 6
GTO capacity: 11.5 tons
Current release date: 3Q-4T 2021
Confidence: medium-high
Our Estimated Release Date: Q4 2021
Last week, the European Space Agency confirmed that the launch of the Ariane 6 rocket would slide from later this year until 2021. “We know that the first flight will not take place before the second half of 2021,” Daniel Neuenschwander, the director of Space Transportation, he told Ars.
Authorities cited several reasons for the delay, but mainly blamed the COVID-19 pandemic. The disease has affected both manufacturing work at various locations in Europe and the launch site in French Guiana, which shares a border with Brazil. If the tests of the integrated first and second stages of the Ariane 6 are carried out in early 2021, we will have more confidence in the launch of this great rocket next year.
Vulcan-Centaur
GTO capacity: 14.4 tons
Current Release Date: Summer 2021
Confidence: medium-low
Our Estimated Release Date: Q4 2021
On July 1, the United Launch Alliance announced that it had received the first “pathfinder” version of the BE-4 engine that will power its Vulcan-Centaur rocket. This will assist with all sorts of testing as the company progresses towards the first launch of its new heavy lift rocket. However, a path search engine is different from the ones (Vulcan’s first stage has two main engines) that will power the rocket in flight.
Currently, the RD-180 (Atlas V) and RS-68 (Delta IV Heavy) engines power the two United Launch Alliance rockets. For some historical perspective, we look at the time elapsed between the time the flight versions of those engines first arrived at the rocket factory and when the thrusters first flew. Averaged at 19.5 months. This suggests that launching in 2021 will be a challenge for the United Launch Alliance, but it is not impossible. Given that we’ve heard that the company is working hard for the first launch of Vulcan, we’ll stick with 2021 for now.
United Launch Alliance
Super heavy
GTO capacity: 21 tons
Current release date: ¯ _ (ツ) _ / ¯
Confidence: medium-low
Our Estimated Release Date: Q4 2021
SpaceX may soon begin short test flights from its Starship vehicle. Though massive, Starship is simply the top stage of its next-generation launch system. The first stage, dubbed “Super Heavy”, is likely to be powered by 31 Raptor engines and will be used to propel the starship into low Earth orbit.
Although SpaceX has focused on Starship development so far, there are many things in common between the two stages: they both use the same engines, similar tanks, and share the same diameter. This means that once SpaceX engineers test a lot of the technology needed for a Starship launch, they should have a pretty good template for developing Super Heavy.
Recently, we have seen evidence that SpaceX has begun building a “high bay” facility at its South Texas launch site. This is where the company will stack the stainless steel rings that will form the structure of this rocket. So when could I try an orbital flight? SpaceX has been moving quite fast in the Starship project, so we won’t be ruling out a flight next year. Just keep in mind that this is a great project with many uncertainties.
Space launch system
GTO capacity: about 20 tons
Current release date: late 2021
Confidence: low
Our Estimated Release Date: Q1-Q2 2022
NASA’s large, expendable SLS rocket was originally supposed to launch in late 2016, so it’s already going to be five years late. At a development cost of over $ 2 billion a year, that’s a very costly delay. But we’ve finally seen progress, with the central first stage of the rocket leaving the factory in Louisiana earlier this year and moving to a test site in Mississippi.
NASA and central stage contractor Boeing are working on a critical test firing of the rocket and its four main engines later this fall. Once this “green run” test is complete, we will begin to have more confidence in the launch date of the rocket. It will depend on whether the test reveals no problems, some small or some major problems that require a lengthy solution.
POT
New Glenn
GTO capacity: 13 tons
Current release date: late 2021
Confidence: low
Our Estimated Release Date: 3Q-4T 2022
Blue Origin has spent a lot of time and money on facilities, constructing a large assembly building and launch site in Florida, a rocket engine factory in Alabama, and a new headquarters in Washington state.
What we haven’t seen yet is physical hardware for the New Glenn rocket. The company has made significant strides in developing the powerful BE-4 engine, but there are enormous challenges in building tanks and pipes for a large rocket like New Glenn and writing the software to control its flight.
Another challenge Blue Origin faces is reusing the booster from scratch. When SpaceX started catching Falcon 9 rockets, it had dozens of flights worth of data and experimentation. With New Glenn, Blue Origin will seek to catch the valuable first leg from the start, which will likely require additional testing before the first release. So we believe it will be a while before New Glenn takes flight.
