Russian President Vladimir Putin just got what he wanted from a recent vote: the appearance of a popular mandate on a plan that allows him to stay in power far beyond his current term limit, and could essentially make him president. forever.
On July 1, Russia recounted the results of a week-long national vote on a series of constitutional reforms, including a constitutional amendment that allows Putin to miss term limits and remain president until 2036. Such a result was expected, and largely predetermined, given Russia’s long history of electoral fraud. This last vote also saw some, well, irregularities.
Putin, who has been in power in Russia in one form or another since 1999, had planned to leave office in 2024, although most observers thought he would probably find a way to prolong it. The Russian leader’s plans became clearer in March, when, in the early stages of the coronavirus crisis, the Russian parliament unleashed a host of proposed constitutional changes. They included an adjustment that would restore the limits of the presidential term, which could make Putin’s president in Russia for the rest of his life, or at least most of it (he will turn 83 in 2036).
At the time, Putin proposed holding a national vote in April to gain popular support for these changes, but the Kremlin postponed the vote due to the coronavirus. They finally held him this week.
But here is the fun part: Putin did not really need the Russian people to endorse these changes in the vote; it had already obtained the necessary approval from Parliament, regional governments and the courts.
In fact, not only had the constitutional amendments been enacted, but the newly amended constitution had been printed and sent to bookstores for sale, even before the vote took place.
However, that does not mean that the vote did not matter. He did it, just for a different reason. Putin may not have needed the people’s votes, but he wanted them, many of them, to try to legitimize the seizure of power and help signal, especially to Russia’s powerful elite, that Putin is still the guy.
And, unsurprisingly, he got the votes he wanted: According to Russia’s Central Election Commission, more than 77 percent of voters supported the changes to the Russian constitution. Of course, Putin was always going to win, one way or another, thanks to all the electoral antics he had implemented (more on that in a moment).
So Putin got approval for job security for life, at least on paper.
But the Russian president is in a slightly more precarious position than the vote counts might suggest. The country’s economy remains stagnant, and that was true before the pandemic. It could be in part why Putin wanted this vote now.
“It is a very ironic situation,” Timothy Frye, a professor of post-Soviet foreign policy at Columbia University, told me. Constitutional amendments are a “seizure of power that is somehow being done from a position of weakness rather than strength.”
How to win a largely false election, according to Russia
Voting began on June 25, giving voters about a week to cast their votes in person. Russia lifted all of its coronavirus restrictions the day before the vote began, marked with a beautiful and grand parade.
Voting stations were installed everywhere, including in places like car trunks and also real tree trunks. Online voting was also implemented, although at least one Russian journalist reported that the system allowed him to vote twice, once in person and once online, according to the Washington Post.
Observers have noted many other irregularities in the process, most notably widespread reports from employers pressuring their employees to support the amendments. Experts told me that this commonly happens in Russian elections, especially in the public sector, and reports suggest that the campaign was pretty well deployed during this upcoming vote.
However, even more cunningly, the amendment to change Putin’s term limit also appeared on the ballot with many other amendments, some of which were quite popular. They included a pension guarantee, an amendment that defined marriage as between a man and a woman, and another that affirmed the Russians’ belief in God. There were nearly 200 in total, according to the Wall Street Journal.
And all of these were grouped together in a single vote from top to bottom, which meant that if you wanted a pension guarantee, or if you wanted to make it very clear, you and your compatriots really believe in God, so by the way, that also means that just voted to approve a lifetime Putin’s presidency. The Kremlin also campaigned on these more popular issues, making them the centerpiece of the vote and downplaying all of that term limit.
“They were distractions, because obviously the intention was to get a positive vote for Putin to stay,” Associate Member of the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House, who served as Britain’s ambassador to Russia in 1995, told Andrew Sir Wood. to 2000. me.
Given this, it is not surprising that the Russian opposition qualifies the vote as a farce.
“We will never recognize this result,” said Alexei Navalny, one of Russia’s most prominent opposition leaders. The coronavirus, and the social distancing restrictions that banned mass gatherings, also made it challenging for Putin’s critics to voice their discontent or protest before the vote, somewhat calming possible opposition.
But again, Putin technically did not need nearly 78 percent of Russians to vote for the amendment. These changes were primarily a done deal. But Putin wanted to say that all these people supported this plan. That is a large part of what this vote is about.
Putin’s job security may not be as strong as it sounds.
Putin’s victory in this “referendum” might seem at first glance to underscore Putin’s popularity, at least Putin would like everyone to believe that. But the Russian president has faced great pressure recently, and that may continue to increase after the pandemic and the deepening of the economic crisis.
This May, its popularity fell to its lowest point: 59 percent. And while sure 59 percent is still pretty impressive (Trump, for example, has never broken 49 percent), it’s down from about 70 percent earlier in the year. Russia’s economy also continues to struggle. Decline in oil prices and Western sanctions for Russia’s international misdeeds, from Ukraine to electoral interference, have squeezed the Russian economy. Putin’s attempt to give it a boost has also failed; A $ 400 billion stimulus plan has yet to deliver promised growth. And that crisis may deepen now that everyone is facing a prolonged recession.
Exactly how bad the coronavirus situation is in Russia is still a little cloudy; The country has reported more than 660,000 cases, the third largest case in the world behind the United States and Brazil, and less than 10,000 deaths. However, those statistics are unlikely to be completely accurate. But even if those counts are lowered enough, the figure in the near future probably won’t be as bad as it has been in other Western countries (specifically, the US, which has more than 2.7 million confirmed cases and more than 128,000 deaths. , from July 2)
The consequences of all this are still not entirely clear, so Putin took advantage of the moment to promote these constitutional changes in this moment of uncertainty.
The referendum was a “way for Putin to say, ‘Look, I’m still in charge here. I’m the one with the popular mandate. They all shut up,” as a way to demonstrate their power, “Ora John Reuter, associate professor, told me. from the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
It was meant to send a message to the people, and especially to Russia’s elites, that in such turbulent times they need Putin’s leadership more than ever.
Putin himself basically said the same thing after the vote: “We are still very vulnerable in many ways, we have done our best, we need internal stability and time to strengthen the country, all its institutions,” he said in a speech on Thursday.
But organizing a national vote to demonstrate this does not exactly inspire such confidence either.
“The more the Kremlin has tried to get people to vote and get involved in things like packing all these amendments, or not allowing rivals to run against it, the harder it will be for them to present the case to the Russian average that Putin is really popular.” said Frye, the Columbia professor.
It is that position of weakness, not strength, that is the real underlying current of Putin’s actions. And the referendum doesn’t tell Russia or the rest of the world much about its future plans.
Putin has not officially announced that he will run again after 2024, but he will almost certainly do so, and the constitutional amendment removes any political meddling or concern about a successor who might have crawled.
“In a weird way, I don’t think this really gives us much new information about what their intentions are with regard to 2024,” said Reuter. “It opens the door, legally, for him to stay, but nobody thought that the main impediment to his staying was that the annoying law was going to interfere.
“So I think the question remains that the future is still open,” he added. “Obviously, any of the betting odds will hold. But, you know, a lot can happen between now and then. “
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