WASHINGTON – The COVID-19 pandemic has already changed the way Americans live, but its long-term repercussions may be in our world even after the virus is finally brought under control. A variety of indicators that analyze Americans’ economic decision-making shows that the virus is affecting how we spend money, how we buy, and perhaps even where we want to live.
Together, the data serves as a reminder of just how consistent coronavirus could be for the country’s future, even beyond health concerns, as the nation tries to control an increasing number of hotspots across the country.
The most common word associated with the virus, through its rise and plateau and renewed rise, may be uncertainty. And that mood is reflected in a shift in American spending.
In June, Visa reported that the volume of Americans’ spending on credit cards decreased by 21 percent in May 2020 compared to May 2019. At the same time, their spending on debit cards increased by 12 percent in the same measurement period.
And beyond personal bank statements, that’s a change that could have a big impact on the overall economy.
For people, it could actually be good news. Americans are known for piling up credit card debt that can leave them in trouble when the economy sinks. With debit cards, they only spend the money they have, not the future money they may or may not receive.
But for the nation (and its overall GDP), the change in the news about spending habits seems less sunny. When you only spend what you have, you generally spend less. That likely means fewer dollars flow into the economy when it needs growth.
And that idea, being more careful with money, can also be seen in how people make decisions when they buy, according to a June poll by McKinsey and Company.
In that survey, 40 percent of Americans said they were “becoming more aware” of where they were spending their money, and 31 percent said they were “switching to less expensive products to save money.”
A notable 75 percent of respondents said they had “attempted new buying behavior” (rebrand or retailer) during the pandemic for convenience, value, or availability. And, perhaps more importantly, more than 70 percent of those people said they plan to continue that behavior when the crisis is over.
In other words, the COVID crisis is challenging and changes long-standing consumption patterns. The changes that occur during the pandemic are not only far-reaching, but could last long after a vaccine or treatment is found.
And there is data showing that an even more lasting change could come: new attitudes about where people want to live. Realtor.com data shows that people are interested in moving, and there appears to be a growing appeal for properties outside of cities.
Realtor.com figures, which compared this June to June 2019, found that houses in rural and suburban ZIP codes saw the biggest jump in average views per property. Homes in urban zip codes had a 19 percent increase in views compared to last year. But houses in suburban zip codes jumped much higher than 30 percent. And houses in rural zip codes saw a 34 percent increase in views.
Property views are not property sales, of course. It is hard to imagine that the nation’s largest trend toward urban migration will suddenly stop. But these numbers show that there is at least an interest in leaving the most densely populated areas and in communities that are more dispersed. Anecdotal evidence suggests that part of this may be about finding second-home getaways in more remote communities.
These types of premises have some advantages at the time of COVID. Suburban and especially rural communities are places where social distancing is more an integral part of daily life, away from crowded streets and public transportation. And if working from home becomes a more common and accepted practice, even after the pandemic, long trips may not seem like the negative they once were. There is a difference between being stuck in traffic five days a week and being stuck in traffic three days a week.
Of course, making predictions about the future during the pandemic is not easy. Just a few months ago, fall sports and schooling seemed like good bets. Now, they seem increasingly unlikely. Uncertainty is the only real certainty.
But it is impossible to ignore the greatest impacts that COVID-19 is having on the nation, impacts that go far beyond the health system or even the unemployment rate. The data suggests that the virus has altered the way we think about money and the way we think about our daily lives, and some of those changes may be with us long after the virus goes away.
