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The national currency has devalued today, at a record level, compared to the European one: 4 lei and 85 bani for one euro, according to the official exchange rate set by the NBR.
Prime Minister Ludovic Orban hopes that the National Bank will manage to keep the exchange rate stable. However, the institution’s experts warn that the leu will continue to depreciate if spending on pensions and salaries is not controlled.
Since the beginning of the year, the leu has depreciated 1.6% against the euro. Dragoş Cabat is an association with more than 200 financial analysts. Here are their estimates.
Dragoş Cabat – President of CFA Romania: “A normal or fair exchange rate of the leu against the euro at the moment is between 4.85 and 4.95, maybe even around 5. By the middle of next year it has a good chance of reaching 4.95.”
The exchange rate is towards 4.85 instead of 5 and due to the measures taken so far by the National Bank. And Ludovic Orban hoped that salvation would also come from there in the future.
Ludovic orban – Prime Minister: “I am convinced that the national bank is closely following the phenomenon and, as it has done so far, will continue to be able to maintain a relative stability of the euro-euro exchange rate.”
The lion depreciated like the zloty and the forint
So far, the leu has depreciated at the same rate as the currencies of Poland and Hungary, a sign that it is losing ground due to a global context, not internal problems. However, the NBR warns that it will be difficult to keep things under control amid the global crisis, as budgetary expenditures rise in Romania.
Dan suciu – BNR spokesperson: “There is an additional risk of depreciation, of putting additional pressure on the exchange rate, because public spending does not seem to be controlled at all times. Since we are apparently resuming the discussion related to the increase in pensions, related to salary increases that imply expenses, increases in deficits ”.
It is a direct allusion to today’s decision by PSD to reintroduce the 40% increase in pensions in the budget, instead of the 14% set by the government that it can support the budget.
