Christian Mititelu, former director of BBC Romania, on Brexit: Britain will lose 4% of GDP, percentages that will be added to those devoured by the pandemic

Below is the full post on his social media page:

„Our fate is in our hands, ”said Boris Johnson after the ratification of the nearly 1,500-page agreement with the EU at the twelfth hour in Parliament in a matter of hours. Another motto of his repertoire rich in words and less in deeds. Just as simplistic, but especially effective, was the slogan with which, based on personal calculations, in 2016 he got on the oldest bandwagon of the Conservative Party nationalist group: “Let’s take control!” Control over money, borders and territorial waters, that is to say, easy to pronounce, “to regain our sovereignty”!

With money, London will no longer contribute directly to the EU budget after paying all its obligations under the 2019 divorce deed, except to be able to participate in projects of common interest. However, it will spend the employment of 50,000 customs agents, hundreds of veterinarians, printing and administration of approx. a quarter of a million forms, new passports (produced in Poland), etc., the establishment of its own institutions to replace the community ones, and dozens of other bureaucratic “investments” in sovereignty.

With the borders of the island, which is not even part of Schengen, it was solved with the price of leaving the Single Market that stipulated the free movement of labor in the EU. Circulation, that is, migration from Eastern Europe, initially encouraged by successive governments, but intensely speculated by xenophobic Nigel Farage, slowed down after the referendum. The latest annual statistics show a decrease in migration from the rest of the EU from 190,000 to less than 60,000. In contrast, the number of those arriving from other meridians, those for which there is theoretically control, has practically doubled to 375,000 newcomers.

Finally, the question of control of territorial waters (in addition to those patrolled by Russian submarines) was also marked on paper. Access to EU fisheries will be limited after a 66-month transitional period, followed by regular negotiations to set quotas for sardines and other species. It is precisely the chapter of the treaty that has proven most difficult to negotiate, although the contribution of the British fishing industry to the state budget is more modest than that of the Harrods department store in London (in which case sovereignty has long been yielded by sale).

But beyond these Christmas gifts delivered to an audience that is beginning to have doubts about Brexit, what does the agreement mean?

The Johnson administration has implemented a severe Brexit, the simple question asked of voters in the referendum left no nuance on a complex issue, even harsher than the partition negotiated by Theresa May, but not ratified by a divided parliament. . The UK has left the single market and the customs union, with the exception of Northern Ireland, which is still a quarter of the EU. As a result, the arm of the sea that separates the province from the rest of the kingdom becomes an interstate trade border, a scenario that Boris Johnson said no British prime minister would accept.

It should be remembered that the single market was the great contribution of former Conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher to the evolution of the EU. It has led to the removal of the latest barriers to trade between Member States, the harmonization of regulations, the establishment of minimum standards for products manufactured in the EU and the mutual recognition of professional qualifications. Unfortunately, Thatcher did not agree to the adoption of a “social” harmonization, which would energize the Eurosceptic current in the party, the backbone of the next three Conservative Prime Ministers.

To maintain access for British industrial products to the single market, without tariffs or quotas, British companies will not be able to deviate from European standards and the government will only be able to subsidize economic activities under exceptional conditions. The EU does not want to have a serious competitor on the other side of the English Channel to create a commercial advantage by lowering its level in terms of labor protection, social protection, environmental protection or tax rules.

Any deviation will be arbitrated by a joint UK / EU commission, whose decisions will be binding, thus avoiding any parliamentary scrutiny. London has given up some of its sovereignty (inherent in any trade agreement or other treaty), but it cannot maintain the same access to the single market that it enjoys as a member of the EU. If the industry benefits from the new agreement, it is not the case of the financial services, banking, insurance, etc. sector, which is much more developed and whose contribution to GDP rises to 80%.

Otherwise, road, sea and air transport will be subject to independent negotiations. Likewise, access to the European energy market and data collected by the EU. The self-employed must apply for the recognition of professional qualifications in the EU. London will continue to work with the EU to fight terrorism and serious crime, but is losing access to Interpol. And British students, the most European segment of the population, are losing access to the Erasmus exchange program.

So what could be achieved after a year of negotiations is only a minimal agreement. A skeleton in which a muscle will have to be grafted in time. The one-year deadline was set by Boris Johnson. Until recently, he and his colleagues argued that a trade deal could be reached very easily because “the UK has all the assets.” Experts, who were “fed up” with his deputy, Michael Gove, said it could take years. Johnson and his people also had the illusion that the UK and the EU would negotiate as “equal sovereign” entities. The first exports approx. 45% of which products in the EU; the second exports to the United Kingdom only 15%. This is the balance of power. Otherwise, the EU does not benefit from Brexit either, but the main economic forecasting institution in London estimates that the United Kingdom will suffer a loss of 4% of GDP, percentages that will be added to those devoured by the pandemic. Boris Johnson, the champion of the superlatives that circulated since he was a journalist, said until Christmas Eve that the country will prosper a lot (“we will do it a lot”), even without a deal!

Worse still, if the EU has managed to maintain unprecedented unity and discipline during the negotiations, the tough Brexit promoted by the Johnson administration runs the risk of undermining UK unity. In fact, all MPs outside of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland voted against ratification. The status of Northern Ireland – an open border with the Republic of Ireland and, on the other hand, controls and documents to present in the case of trade with the rest of the kingdom – will contribute in the long run to the temptation to unify the two Ireland. the Catholic population. And in Scotland, where 62% of the vote in the referendum was in favor of staying in the EU and where Prime Minister Johnson is unpopular, the newly concluded deal will amplify separatism. The Scottish Nationalist Party will consolidate its dominant position in the Edinburgh Parliament in the May elections and call for a new independence referendum.

That is why the populism of the Brexiters hits reality since January 1. Populism runs out of oxygen when promises aren’t kept. Donald Trump will leave the White House one way or another. Boris Johnson, a product of the same populist spirit, will remain in Downing Street for a long time only if the Conservative Party abandons the pragmatism that has ensured so many governments for the past 150 years. Only Brexit remains forever.