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Dr. Gabriel Diaconu accuses the Orban Government and the strategic communication group of lying. It says that the data on the coronavirus pandemic in Romania is wrong and deliberately manipulated for political purposes.
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“The following are dedicated to all Public Health Directorates in Romania, to the staff who centralize the relevant data on the COVID epidemic in the territory of the country,
Prime Minister Orban,
Minister Tataru,
Honored to the mancist audience at the level of the Strategic Communication Group (sic!) Deputy to the government …
How do you know when someone is lying to you?
I hesitated to write these lines. In the first place, because throughout this health crisis – and I am not the only one – I have put my shoulder to the efforts of the authorities. Putting your shoulder on, whether it suits you or not, will have a political setback. The authorities, be they red, yellow or blue, have been and are coordinated from the center by a liberal government.
This liberal government has appointed people to coordinate the medical effort to:
to. Prevention of the spread of the new coronavirus infection in the population
b. Intervention when the sick person suffers complications from the COVID disease
c. Continuation of the offer of medical-health care to any other patient in Romania …
But not only. The authorities made decisions that affected the economy and education. Based on these decisions, some that we support, others not, the destinies of some people, citizens of the same country, were influenced …
… adults, the elderly, children alike.
When he went to pick up the vise, they picked it up. And when he went to open the vise, they opened it.
How do you know when someone is lying to you?
The best lie is sometimes the truth. It is the preamble to one of my favorite expressions: when I tell you that I am lying to you, am I lying to you or am I telling you the truth?
The truth, these days, is terribly based on the daily figures reported by the authorities on new cases of COVID, the number of tests carried out every 24 hours, but also on the number of people in ATI departments, respectively those who died. from previous reports in the context of SARS-Cov2 infection.
In the group of specialists in mathematics, statistics and cartography, of which I am a part, I have been discussing, in the last 8 months, the mathematical oddities that have appeared.
Aberrations, deviations, unique and unexpected deviations from what should have resulted, overnight, from the “pandemic pulse” as reflected in the numbers.
I don’t have enough words of praise for these people. First of all because they do everything they do voluntarily, out of love for their country and their friends.
Second because I am an elite. Spread across various countries, cities, universities or professional centers, these people have NEVER had the opportunity for Mr. Manciu to earn someone’s trust without having to finish his studies.
There is no point mentioning names or credentials. It is enough to do a titanic job to have the opportunity (!) In Romania to obtain a high performance statistic on COVID, to have the press take over and take it into the homes of Romanians.
But let’s see how, sometimes, they are confused by all the madness of the Romanian authorities, by those of the INSP, by those of GCS, by the way in which figures vs. figures were reported regionally. what came to the center was not and is not easy.
This confusion took shape later, a month ago, to the amazement of the public, but especially among experts, the Orban Government and friends decided, overnight, to change the way of calculating the accumulated incidence to 14 days in COVID cases. .
That it was a home, well, wait, it was a residence, that we measured those who stayed after having identified an outbreak (which we subtracted), or those who were in the hospital (which we did not take into account), the dynamic representation by the advocacy participation was made bows …
And this is because the health “plan” was based on levels of incidence in which action had to be taken. And when the time came, I saw these people giving their all for Buzau. It would be, you know, it was the threshold, the threshold, but not really like that. And so
This scabies has resulted in preventable infections and loss of life. PEOPLE HAD TO DIE …
It’s just that in medical statistics, as in statistics in general, because the common engine is number processing, there are ways to probe a database to see if it is corrupt.
You can take strings of numbers and using EVERYTHING we know about their distribution, and how often we expect certain numbers to appear in a sequence of data that are part of the set of natural numbers, you will have the tool to find out if someone has “Changed from pen “, more precisely if the numbers are FAKE.
It’s called Benford’s law. Without a doubt, there are people much more educated than me who could explain it. What I understood from it, and what I translate here, is that there is no chaos in the frequency of occurrence of the digit 1, or 2, or 3 … up to 9 in many numbers that follow a distribution curve as you would expect from the evolution of some cases from one day to the next “natural”.
In fact, its frequency must follow certain rules, such as that the most common digit is 1 and the least common is 9. The mathematical proof is elegant and the implications as beautiful as they are heavy.
Why,
The data series on the COVID pandemic in Romania must RESPECT Benford’s law.
But the official data violates this law.
As a result, the Romanian authorities lie.
The Orban government lies.
Now, the Orban government could say that they only centralize the data transmitted from the territory, so they don’t lie.
Territorial data, on the other hand, is corrupt.
And the Orban government had the tool to intervene so they didn’t get corrupted.
My colleagues at geospatial.org, respectively Dragos Vana from graphs.ro, made this exploration possible and I thank them from the bottom of my heart for their efforts.
There is, for each county in Romania, a Benford curve showing how “true” the figures sent to the upper left group were.
You will see that EVERYWHERE in Romania there are significant deviations from the Benford curve in terms of the number of newly announced cases, the number of reported tests, but also the number of deaths. Significant deviations = someone lied, someone falsified data.
I assume this appreciation. She is not an accusation. But in a matter of such public importance and with so many ramifications for the lives of so many Romanians, we can neither mock, nor hide, nor can we beautify people.
It was a matter of time. And it was a question of robustness, that is, this analysis is done today on a data set large enough to have a sufficient value / detection power /.
The graphical rendering, I admit, left a willow taste in my mouth.
If the numbers are wrong, if the reports are planned, if at some point along the way someone changes the weight of a kilogram of data at will, it means that everything that the “experts” pass to the prime minister, the minister, the president , it’s bullshit.
Or that shouldn’t happen.
I let everyone check what’s going on in their county.
Romania is not Russia. But it is not far from the “profile” of the data they report (according to Benford’s law).
And for those who collect and then report data on a daily basis, my prayer to everyone is: DO NOT LIE. Because lying has short legs. And only for a child, or for a politician 1 + 1 = 3.
#medicinromania # COVID19
All graphics here: “Diaconu writes on Facebook.
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