BRUSSELS – An escalating dispute between Greece and Turkey over energy sources in the eastern Mediterranean is rapidly being militarized, raising the risks of a clash among NATO allies.
Foreign Minister Heiko Maas of Germany, who this week sought to encourage dialogue between Greece and Turkey, warned both governments against further military escalation. “Playing with fire and any small spark can lead to disaster,” he said Tuesday.
As Germany seeks to mediate, four of its other EU members, France, Greece, Cyprus and Italy, are engaged in military exercises involving ships and aircraft off the Cypriot coast. Their goal, they say, is to deter Turkey from further energy exploration in disputed waters, which it has been doing for several weeks with ships guarded by warships and fighter jets.
France has been on the side of Greece, and last week sent ships and planes to the region. French officials have also criticized Turkey, a member of NATO but not the European Union, for its support of the United Nations-backed government in Libya, which provided troops in exchange for a controversial maritime energy deal that would expand Turkish drilling. rights in the eastern Mediterranean.
The French Minister of Defense, Florence Parly, while acknowledging that dialogue was her priority, announced the two-day military exercises Wednesday, emphasizing that “respect for international law should be the rule and not the exception.”
But the European Union is divided on how to deal with the crisis. France, Greece and Cyprus want a hard line, while Germany, Spain and Italy promote a more conciliatory approach.
Those tensions will be discussed as European Union defenses and foreign ministers meet in Berlin this week. The bloc has already objected to most of Turkey’s claims, including its Libyan deal, which Washington also refuses to acknowledge.
Under the leadership of Greece, Cyprus and France, some EU members want to impose new sanctions, and the bloc’s chief of foreign policy, Josep Borrell Fontelles, will present options for discussion in Berlin. But Germany, which holds the rotating presidency of the European Union, is excited to give Turkey a boost in exchange for de-escalation.
While Greece and Turkey have agreed to exploratory talks, Mr Maas said, “it is clear that such talks can only take place and be successful in a constructive environment, and therefore all destructive activities must be stopped.”
Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Tuesday that Ankara “was open to unconditional talks, but if one side begins to impose conditions, there are also many things we will propose.” He warned Greece to “stop being bratty” and draw red lines that could lead to conflict.
But Greece wants to limit talks to demarcating the continental shelf and subsequent energy rights in the eastern Mediterranean, and not provide a blank slate for other Turkish complaints, such as the status of Greek-inhabited islands in the Aegean Sea.
Foreign ministers are not expected to take decisions on sanctions or incentives in Berlin, with European Council President Charles Michel saying the issues will be discussed at a summit on September 24.
Tensions between Greece and Turkey go back, at least recently, to the Turkish invasion of Cyprus in 1974 and the division of the island. The two countries almost went to war in 1996 over an uninhabited island, a crisis dismantled by American diplomacy.
Although Washington has supported Greece and Cyprus with silent diplomacy and some military support, including sending an aircraft carrier into the eastern Mediterranean, it now lets Germany take the lead in managing the crisis.
Turkey has become more nationalistic and assertive since the failed coup in 2016 against the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which has pushed Turkish interests as far away as Syria and Libya. Germany is also aware that Turkey houses up to four million refugees and migrants who might otherwise try to come to Europe.
Turkey seems to be pursuing what it calls “Blue Homeland”, an expansionist strategy to reclaim waters and resources in the eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean, controlled by Greece and other countries. The plan calls for Turkey to take over several Greek islands where hundreds of thousands of Greek citizens live.
Although Greece can agree on disputes over claims in the southeastern Mediterranean on international arbitration in The Hague, it will not negotiate on the Aegean.
The root of today’s crisis was the discovery 10 years ago of massive natural gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean. As more gas has been discovered and exploited, countries have declared their rights to often overlapping offshore areas known as exclusive economic zones. Some countries that are normally at war – such as Israel, Greece, Cyprus and Egypt – have collaborated on gas projects.
But the various consortia have excluded Turkey, and Greece’s ownership of islands off the Turkish coast gives Athens claims to exclusivity that ranks Ankara.
“Their aim was to lock our country, which has the longest coastline in the Mediterranean, into a coastal strip from which you can only catch fish with a rod,” Mr Erdogan lamented.
For example, Israel, Cyprus, Greece and Italy are planning a pipeline called EastMed to carry gas to European consumers, but Turkey’s newer maritime claims are crossing its route, and Mr Erdogan has promised to block it.
Ankara claims that Cyprus has no right to exploit its gas resources until it reaches an agreement to share them with Turkish Cypriots in the north of the island. Turkey, which is not a signatory to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, including exclusive economic zones, opposes those claimed by Greece and Cyprus and wants a bigger one for itself.
Mr Erdogan sent research and drilling vessels to explore Cyprus this year, which called for mild European sanctions in February, and did the same near the island of Rhodes. Greece said it would defend its territory, and Turkey has flooded Greek islands with fighter jets and put naval vessels in the area. This month, a Greek frigate collided with a Turkish patrol of the research ship, prompting the French decision to help Greece.
The distance is the most serious confrontation between NATO allies since Turkey and Greece in 1996.
Germany wants both sides to stop breastfeeding and stop talking. But shortly after Mr Erdogan agreed to remove his research vessel in late July, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis signed an energy deal with Egypt that would dismantle its exclusive economic zones. Mr Erdogan responded angrily, saying the countries had no mutual maritime borders and that the deal encroached on the Libyan zone. When Greece moved to ratify the deal, he sent his ships back.
Mr Mitsotakis wants to show solidity at home without provoking Ankara too badly, Greek officials say. But on Wednesday, he announced that Greece would extend its territorial waters in the Ionian Sea to the west from six to 12 nautical miles, a right under the UN Convention, and that it reserved the right to do so elsewhere.
But he is unlikely to visit the Aegean Sea because Turkey has said such a move would be grounds for war.
Mr Erdogan said Turkey “will take what it is entitled to” in the region, promising that “we will never make concessions about what is ours.”
Given Turkey’s more aggressive and nationalist position, many believe that the European Union should think through a different relationship with a country that remains a crucial NATO ally, trading partner and bridge to the Muslim world.
Stefano Stefanini, a former Italian ambassador to NATO, says Europe needs to stop “going through the motions” about the prospect of Turkey joining, a 21-year-old saga with negotiations since 2016, and “discuss what a forward move can be” – looking for, including relationship with the EU “
That could include visa-free travel and a reform of the existing customs union, he said, “a generous relationship but short of membership.”
But that would require a negotiated solution or acceptable arbitration to share the resources of the eastern Mediterranean.
Niki Kitsantonis contributed reports from Athens, and Matina Stevis-Gridneff from Brussels.
