Which candidate is winning in the race to develop a vaccine against the novel SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus? It depends on who you ask.
The chief scientist of the World Health Organization (WHO), Soumya Swaminathan, said several weeks ago that an experimental COVID-19 vaccine was being developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University was “probably the leading candidate”. But President Donald Trump seems to have a different opinion.
On Wednesday, the President stated, “We believe we have a winner.” He was referring to the COVID-19 vaccine candidate developed by Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and German biotechnology BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX). Why is President Trump optimistic about the experimental vaccine?
Image source: WhiteHouse.gov.
Encouraging results
The president’s comments came just two days after Pfizer and BioNTech announced encouraging results from an ongoing BNT162b1 phase 1/2 study in Germany. The experimental vaccine is one of four coronavirus vaccine candidates that the companies are jointly developing.
BNT162b1 produced high levels of neutralizing antibodies and T-cell responses in study participants who received two doses of the experimental vaccine. Neutralizing antibodies and T cell responses have the potential to prevent infection with the new coronavirus.
Additionally, Pfizer and BioNTech said BNT162b1 had “a manageable tolerability profile.” No serious adverse events were reported in the clinical study. However, some participants experienced injection site reactions and had flu-like symptoms.
These results were in good agreement with data from a phase 1/2 clinical trial in the US reported earlier this month. However, the above results did not include the T cell response observed in the German clinical trial.
Big money
Hours before President Trump praised the COVID-19 vaccine by Pfizer and BioNTech, the United States government put a lot of money at stake with the experimental vaccine. The US Department of Health and Human Services and the Department of Defense agreed to pay $ 1.95 billion for 100 million doses of BNT162.
However, no money has yet been exchanged. Payment will be made after the US government receives the 100 million doses. This cannot happen until the Food and Drug Administration approves the vaccine or grants authorization for emergency use.
This could be just the beginning of a lucrative deal for Pfizer and BioNTech. As part of the agreement, the United States government can purchase up to 500 million additional doses of the COVID-19 vaccine.
Earlier last week, Pfizer and BioNTech signed a smaller deal with the UK. The companies will supply 30 million doses of their candidate COVID-19, pending successful testing and regulatory approval. However, no financial details were disclosed.
A winner?
Pfizer and BioNTech hope to start a phase 2b / 3 study very soon, perhaps in late July. If all goes well, they anticipate seeking regulatory approvals as early as October.
Investors hoping to become winners of the COVID-19 vaccine race may find Pfizer and BioNTech shares attractive. The United States government deal alone has the potential for nearly $ 12 billion in sales if the option to purchase an additional 500 million doses is exercised.
More conservative investors will likely prefer Pfizer. The large drug maker already has a long line of approved products, and it wouldn’t be hurt as much if the BNT162 program fails in late-stage testing. Aggressive investors would likely find BioNTech more to their liking. With a market capitalization of less than $ 20 billion, biotech stocks should have plenty of room to function if BNT162 lives up to its potential.
However, Pfizer and BioNTech are not your only options when it comes to potential winners of the COVID-19 vaccine. As President Trump said on Wednesday: “We also believe that we have other companies behind us that are doing very well with vaccines, much sooner than anticipated.”
You are correct that there are other drug manufacturers with promising candidates for the coronavirus vaccine. Some of them are not “just behind” Pfizer and BioNTech; they are actually ahead of the two companies in terms of clinical progress.
The Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine candidate could very well be the winner the President thinks he will be. But you won’t necessarily be the only winner.
