Details, details: A new report by Janus Henderson published Monday found that global dividends fell by $ 108 billion to roughly $ 382 billion in the second quarter, the largest decline since the asset manager began tracking dividends in 2009. The total value of payouts was the lowest for the second quarter since 2012.
“In a quarter of astonishing constraints on normal life around the world, the impact on dividends has been dramatic,” Janus Henderson analysts wrote.
Changes to the dividend regime were broadly based. Dividends fell in every region except North America, which was backed by “resistance” payments from Canadian companies.
Despite massive cuts so far, Janus Henderson still expects global dividends to top $ 1 trillion by 2020, indicating how much growth has happened in the past decades.
On the radar: The company said a reality check will come in the fourth quarter, when companies in North America announce payments for the next four quarters.
The US recession could end in 2020 or 2021
What’s Happening: About 35% of economists surveyed by the National Association of Business Economics, who spoke with 235 members between July 30 and August 10, believe the country will leave the recession in the second half of this year , while 34% expect this to happen sometime in 2021.
Just 4% expect the recession to continue in 2022 or later, while 15% think it will end in the second quarter.
Even as the United States returns to growth this year, economists have made it clear that enormous risks remain, and that many of the economic scars will remain permanent.
About half of respondents do not think that US GDP – the broadest measure of the health of the economy – will return to levels reached by the end of 2019 until at least 2022.
And nearly 80% of people surveyed believe that there is at least one in four chances of a double-dip recession, where economic output falls again after a short period of recovery.
The index shows that the US economy is working at 78% of where it was in early March.
But the strength and longevity of the recovery is still an open question that is largely required on the path of the virus.
“As the fight against Covid escalates, it is difficult to escape the conclusion that successful economic policies begin with successful public health policies,” Neil Shearing, group economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note to clients on Monday.
Could the WeChat ban be restricted? Investors hope so
But optimism that any restrictions could be circumvented drove the company up 5.8% in Hong Kong on Monday.
Investor insights: Tencent shares fell nearly 10% after President Donald Trump signed executive orders on August 6 stating that he would operate WeChat and the short video app TikTok in the United States, unless they were sold by their Chinese property parent companies mid-September. Since then, Tencent has suffered most of its losses.
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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index reports at 8.30am ET.
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