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While many governments are likely to celebrate the end of the most unconventional and chaotic US presidency of modern times, others will have reason to be nostalgic. For the leaders of Turkey, North Korea and Israel, the record has been largely positive. Trump’s departure would face them immediate challenges.
What the most authoritarian winners of Trump’s four years in power have in common is the fear that his departure means the return of a more conventional American foreign policy.
This could lead the US government to design alliances and promote the universality of values such as democracy and human rights, or the fight against climate change. “This president embraces all the evildoers of the world,” said Democrat Joe Biden at a recent event, when he sought to highlight the political divide.
Kim Jong-un
No relationship with the United States has changed more under Trump’s leadership than with North Korea. What started with mutual threats and insults has turned into a sometimes strange exchange of praise. Kim and Trump met three times and exchanged more than two dozen letters, showing their “mysteriously wonderful” chemistry.
However, the radically different approach of the United States did not guarantee the denuclearization of North Korea either.
Kim unveiled a huge ICBM on October 10, which appears capable of launching multiple nuclear warheads.
Biden has already said that he will not meet with the North Korean leader without preconditions, making any quick suspension of sanctions that have put the North Korean economy in its worst recession in two decades less likely.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Turkey’s president relies heavily on Trump for his political protection. The US president was virtually alone between Turkey and the imposition of congressional sanctions due to Erdogan’s decision to buy Russia’s S-400 air defense missile system, despite being a NATO ally.
With the sanctions ready to be applied and Biden having previously advocated that the United States support Turkish opposition parties, Erdogan may have a lot to lose from Trump’s departure.
Xi Jinping
Trump has been more aggressive toward China than any US president in recent history, imposing tariffs on Chinese goods and restricting the country’s access to essential technologies. But Chinese officials have said that, overall, the leadership prefers Trump to stay.
The Beijing government’s concern about Biden is that he will try to create a more coordinated international front to deal with China, while maintaining pressure on trade and technology. Still, China may benefit from a less emotional relationship with the Washington government if Trump loses, according to Zhu Feng, a professor of international relations at Nanjing University. “Do people really want China and the United States to enter a cold war?”
Jair bolsonaro
President Jair Bolsonaro fears losing his privileged relationship with the White House if Trump is not re-elected. Although the Brazilian government has publicly stated that ties with the United States will continue to prosper regardless of the outcome of the November election, a senior official on the presidential team admitted growing concern over polls that give Biden a growing lead over Trump.
This Tuesday, Bolsonaro publicly expressed his support for Trump’s re-election. “I hope, if it is the will of God, to appear at the inauguration of the soon re-elected president in the United States,” said the president when he received the White House National Security Advisor, Roberto O’Brien, in Brasilia. Brazil and the United States signed agreements this week to facilitate bilateral trade.
Ties between Trump and Bolsonaro have intensified since the Brazilian assumed the presidential seat in 2019. Both were elected on the basis of the conservative sentiment of the electorate and built a close relationship that brought some benefits to Brazil.
Trump ended the ban on meat imports from Brazil that had been in effect since Operation Weak Meat in 2017. The US president also announced his support for Brazil’s bid to join the Organization for Cooperation and Development. Economic (OECD). . There was also an alignment of Brazil with US foreign policy. The two countries signed cooperation agreements in defense, space exploration, and Brazil was designated as the preferred extra-NATO ally of the United States by Trump.
Foreign Minister Ernesto Araújo said Brazil would have no problems with a Biden government, but that Bolsonaro’s environmental policies would face strong opposition.
After the first debate between Trump and Biden in late September, Bolsonaro criticized the Democratic candidate for proposing a reforestation plan for the Amazon and suggesting that Brazil could face economic consequences if it does not reverse the process.
Benjamin Netanyahu
Trump has repeatedly broken US precedents to further the Israeli leader’s nationalist agenda by recognizing Israel’s sovereignty over the disputed Golan Heights and moving the US embassy to Jerusalem. Plans to annex parts of the West Bank have been suspended, but could be resumed in a second Trump term.
The real payoff came in September, when Trump brokered deals to normalize relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, but there was a price to pay; Bipartisan support for Israel in Congress has waned.
Many Israelis fear that the country will face increased scrutiny under a Biden administration, while security officials are concerned about the United States’ return to the Iran nuclear deal.
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