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Who won the debate tonight (sunrise in Portugal) between the presidential candidates of the United States of America, Joe Biden and Donald Trump?
According to the first polls by the US station CNN (carried out by SSRS) and CSB News (carried out by YouGov), the advantage is for the Democratic candidate, who at least will have managed to retain the advantage over Donald Trump guaranteed by the polls. prior to the debate.
The CNN poll is the one that gives Joe Biden the most surprising advantage. According to this, six out of ten people who saw the debate consider that the Democratic candidate did better than Donald Trump. The Republican candidate and current president was seen as the winner by only 28% of viewers heard in this poll, conducted with the support of the software SSRS.
There is other relevant data provided by the CNN survey. Depending on the season, before the debate 56% of future viewers of the media confrontation already said they expected Joe Biden to perform better, while 43% considered that the most likely winner was Donald Trump. The Democrat may have added a few points, as only 28% of viewers listened after the debate that it gave Trump an advantage, far less than the 43% who expected it.
In the CNN poll, two-thirds of people considered the Democratic candidate’s responses to be more reliable and truthful than Donald Trump’s (65% for Biden, 29% for Trump), and 69% of viewers heard that the attacks from the first Obama vice president to Trump was fair. Trump’s attacks on Biden were considered fair by only 32% of viewers heard in the CNN poll.
The topics that viewers heard about in the CNN poll considered Joe Biden to be better were racial inequalities (66% trusted Biden more than Trump on this issue, 29% trusted Trump more), the area of health (Biden with an advantage for 66% of viewers) and the public health crisis resulting from Covid-19 (64% of viewers give Biden an advantage on this issue).
The debate seen in Hoboken, NJ (@ Tayfun Coskun / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
Overall, 63% of viewers listened to believe that Joe Biden’s plan to solve America’s problems is better than Donald Trump’s, and only 30% think the current president’s plan will be more efficient.
The station recalls, however, that this market study aims to clarify the position of “registered voters who saw the debate this Tuesday”, without having the ambition to translate “the opinions of all Americans.” Furthermore, the group of viewers heard tended to be more democratic than the US electorate, with 39% of those involved claiming to identify with Joe Biden’s party, while only 25% (one in four) said they identified with him. Republican Party.
Amid shouting and insults, neither Trump nor Biden could think
Who also conducted a poll after the media confrontation between Trump and Biden this Tuesday night (Wednesday morning in Portugal) was CBS News, in alliance with the YouGov company.
The results of this poll were much less favorable for Biden than the results of the CNN poll. The balance was much higher: of listeners heard, 48% considered that the Democratic candidate had done better, while 41% considered that Trump had won.
The debate seen at “The Abbey” in West Hollywood, California (@ Mario Tama / Getty Images)
Still, the preservation of Biden’s lead previously estimated in various polls is also supported by the CBS News poll.
Other data that will make the Democratic candidate smile: 42% of those surveyed in this poll had a worse image of Trump after the debate and only 24% had a better image, while 38% of respondents had a better image of Biden after the media conflict and it was less – 32% – who brought out the worst in the Democratic candidate.
While early polls give Joe Biden an edge, rated by viewers of last night’s debate as having done a better job than President Donald Trump, this is still not a sung victory. In addition to the more traditional polls, Trump seems to have done (surprisingly?) Much better with the Latino community in the United States: According to the American magazine Newsweek, a post-debate poll revealed that 66% of the viewers of the American channel Telemundo Spanish-speaking (which belongs to the NBC network) considers that Trump won the debate, while in the past only 34% see Biden’s performance as better than that of the current president.
The Latino community is a traditionally Democratic electorate, so an advantage of Donald Trump over this electorate could complicate the accounts of former Barack Obama Vice President Joe Biden. Both the Democratic and Republican candidates opted for joint campaign actions by the Latino community and its leaders in the United States, recalls Newsweek.
There is another detail in the results of the first polls that could serve as a warning to the Democratic campaign: the result of the CNN poll, according to which six out of ten viewers of the debate consider that Biden was better than Trump, does not differ much. of the result. from voting at the same station four years ago. At the time, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton was considered the winner of the debate by 62% of viewers heard in the CNN poll, but ended up losing the election to Donald Trump.
Donald Trump supporters attending the debate in Pennsylvania (@ ANGELA WEISS / AFP via Getty Images)
Plus, there’s an issue that could give Trump an edge. Even in CNN’s poll of the debate, which gave Joe Biden a significant advantage, viewers ‘opinions on the two candidates’ perspectives on economic issues were divided: half (50%) considered Biden to be better. when it came to economics, but 48% considered Trump to be the best on this issue.
The ability with which Trump and Biden are seen in solving economic problems is of special concern to the Democratic candidate since the sample of participants was significantly more favorable, since 39% of those involved in the survey said they identify with the Democratic Party. while only 25% assumed to identify with the Republican Party. And the issue may become more frequent when voting, given the economic crisis in the United States resulting from the crisis of the new coronavirus.
Also, when the question in the CNN poll was about who is the strongest leader to preside over the country, Biden’s advantage – 55% consider him a stronger leader – has not been sufficiently consolidated given the greater weight of the Democratic voters involved. in the poll, for Republican voters.
The debate does not seem to have been enough to dig a bigger gap between Biden and Trump than the (short) one that has been calculated in different electoral polls, but the polls suggest that the night may at least have allowed Biden to retain the advantage he had. before the media confrontation.
In the CNN poll, the majority of auspicious viewers (57%) said the debate did not influence their vote, but of the minority who were open to change, 32% said they were more inclined to vote for Biden after the debate on this topic. On Tuesday, only 11% said they were more inclined to vote for Trump.
The way the two candidates are viewed hasn’t changed much according to the CNN poll: Before the debate, 60% of people in the chosen viewer pool claimed to have a positive outlook on Biden and 37% said they had a positive outlook on Trump; After the debate, the variations were small (62% for Biden, 37% for Trump).
Fact review. Pandemic, recession and police violence. Six times the Trump-Biden debate escaped the truth
Furthermore, the results of the CBS News poll seem to indicate that the influence on the direction of the vote will be small: the results – 48% considered Biden the winner, 41% considered Trump the winner – reasonably accurately reflect the estimated differences in support between the two candidates, in the calculation of the pre-election polls.
