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A new study by American consultant McKinsey predicts that the scourge of Covid-19 will end by the end of 2021, and that normality will settle in society in time for next spring and group immunity will arrive in the fall. At least this is the forecast for developed countries.
The consultant’s article presents two extremes for the pandemic: one from the epidemiological point of view, which will happen if group immunity is achieved, and the other taking into account the transition to a new normal.
Based on the statistics presented, the authors argue that in the US, as well as in most developed economies, It is more likely that the epidemiological end will be reached in the third or fourth quarter of 2021, and that the transition to normality will occur earlier, expected in the first or second quarter of 2021. But for that “every day counts.”
The end of the pandemic from the epidemiological point of view will vary from one country to another and will be affected by the following factors: arrival, efficacy and adoption of vaccines against Covid-19, considered the “greatest drivers” of herd immunity; the level of natural immunity in a population (The study authors estimate that between 90 million and 300 million people worldwide have natural immunity.); immunity given exposure to other coronaviruses; partial immunity conferred through other immunizations and regional differences in the way people socialize.
The authors believe that one or more vaccines are likely to be marked for emergency use by the US federal agency for the drug (the Food and Drug Administration, FDA) in late 2020 or early 2021., and that they will receive approval during the first three months of 2021. Furthermore, they believe that, in only six months, vaccines will be distributed sufficient proportion of the population to induce herd immunity, although this depends on factors such as the rapid availability of hundreds of millions of doses, well-assembled distribution chains and even the willingness of people to get vaccinated during the first half of next year.
“Group immunity can be achieved as early as the second quarter of 2021 if the vaccines are highly effective and if they are released without problems,” the study reads. However, if the initial vaccines have safety or efficacy problems, and if their distribution is slow, the epidemiological end can only come in 2022 or even later. In the worst case scenario, the US may still face Covid-19 in 2023 or later.
Ways of achieving group immunity in other developed countries, the authors write, are similar to those in the US, with temporal differences related to vaccine access and distribution and also to natural immunity levels.
Still, the disease is likely to persist, for example, in war-affected areas of the world or in communities with low adherence to vaccination. Added to this is the fact that group immunity does not mean the absolute end of all public health interventions, as new waves of vaccination may be necessary on a regular basis to maintain immunity.
To reach the second end of the pandemic, associated with a return to normality, the most determining factor is the decrease in mortality (there is concern that some recovered patients may face long-term health effects).
This transition will only occur when people gain confidence to resume habits and routines without fear of putting themselves at risk, something that will depend on the advancement of group immunity and also on the effectiveness of public health responses in each country. This will also include acceptance of the public health measures applied and the existence of rapid and effective tests, widely available.
