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To delineate epidemiological models from all regions, and also at the national level, the COTEC team and the Universidade Nova de Lisboa used a known model but added an indicator, as explained by Pedro Simões Coelho to the Observer. “It was an extension that we developed from a known model, the SEIR differential equation model, which works with four indicators: the susceptible, the exposed, the infected and the recovered. The biggest change was that, to these four compartments, we added a fifth, that of deaths. On the other hand, we estimate the data through a hierarchical approach because, if we think about it, we are all part of one of these groups: we are susceptible or we have already been exposed but we have not been infected, or we are infected, or we have already recovered or we have finished dying, “says the professor. All graphs and projections were made based on official data published by DGS.
In Covid-19 Insights, the team estimates that this Wednesday, May 6, Portugal reached 95% of the total expected cases of the new coronavirus that it will end up having. That is, from now on we will only have 5% more than the maximum total expected cases of your model, 33,303 cases, and at this moment we already have 27-268 due to high numbers, with an average of more than 500 daily cases. , of the last three days.
In the graph showing the population infected during the epidemic, it is possible to see that the real data they have remained not only within the confidence interval established by the specialists, but even below the expected infected line. Something that does not happen, for example, in the infection incidence graph.
More infected people should be contacted at the same time this week. Bragança, Beja and Portalegre was where the biggest bull run was broken
In the last three days, the daily number of new cases (480, 533 and 553) has not only gone out of the line of expected infections, something that had happened on other occasions since the start of the pandemic, since the irregular evolution ended pushing the daily increase infections both above and below the line how they passed the confidence interval, something that had only happened once, in early April. Something that Pedro Simões Coelho describes as an “anomalous situation”.
“Mainly in Lisbon and the Tagus Valley. The data for the last three days is very out of line with the history and even exceeds the confidence band. They are abnormally high. There can be two explanations for this: or is it a localized phenomenon, and authorities are investigating this, which may have a prosaic explanation with industries or companies where people have contaminated each other [o tal caso da fábrica da Azambuja]; or the consequences of this gradual opening, which we all know has already occurred, are already being felt, since the date of that opening would be compatible with these three days, “says the project coordinator.
The Covid-19 Insights estimate for the date of the peak of infection, the peak of the curve, in Portugal is April 7, a month ago, but the university professor remembers that “nothing guarantees that a new peak will not return to happen”. “, That” may be lower than the first “.
