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It is still only a scenario that stems from the lack of agreement of the PS with its left-wing partners to approve the State Budgets, but if a political crisis occurs, Chega runs the risk of being the biggest beneficiary. According to a survey carried out by ICS-ISCTE for Expresso and SIC, the PS would remain at the same 37% of the October 2019 elections, the PSD would not exceed the 27% of a year ago, the Block would drop from 9.5% to 8 %, CDU would have the same 6% and only Chega would rise.
According to the opinion poll published this Saturday in Expresso, André Ventura’s party could have 7% of the votes if the elections were held today. This represents an increase of 5.3 points and it could even have a parliamentary seat greater than the 12 deputies that the PCP currently has.
In the same survey, the PAN and the Libera Initiative would also have slight increases: the animal festival could have 4% (when it had 3.3% in 2019) and the liberals would rise from 1.3% to 2%. The CDS, on the other hand, would not exceed 2% – which represents almost half of its vote in the 2019 elections – and Livre would disappear from the parliamentary map.
The same survey, whose field work was carried out between September 14 and 24, also indicates that Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will be elected without difficulty in the first round of the 2021 presidential elections: 65% of those surveyed indicate that they will vote for the reelection of the current Head of State. . Still far from the 70.3% that Mário Soares had in the 1991 elections, the electoral record that Marcelo pursues.
In the fight between Ana Gomes and André Ventura for second place, the ICS-ISCTE study indicates that the former MEP has a clear advantage: 12% against 8%.
The candidate Marisa Matias is very close to Ventura, with 7% of those surveyed guaranteeing that they would vote for the MEP of the Bloco de Esquerda, and João Ferreira has exactly the same percentage of votes as the PCP: 6%.
