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“The polls weren’t a big fallacy last time, “said the political scientist, who lesson at Boston University. “At the national level, the polls have not failed at all,” he said.
When then-candidate Donald Trump won the electoral college and defeated Hillary Clinton, commentators and analysts pointed the finger at the polls, such as perspective it was for the Democratic candidate to be elected.
However, Daniela Melo explained, Clinton’s victory in the popular vote at the national level happened as expected. “The problem was the polls done in states like Wisconsin and Ohio,” he said.
The 2016 election accounting shows that Donald Trump won by a difference of just 77,744 votes, distributed in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pensilvagirland a more detailed analysis of the specialized platform Five thirty eight showed that the accuracy of the national polls that year was similar to that of the previous elections.
The problem is that “it is very difficult to conduct surveys in the United States,” stressed the professor, pointing to the dependence on landlines, a means of conducting research that is less and less reliable to obtain a representative sample.
According to Daniela Melo, the polling companies have made an effort in the last four years to refine the investigation at the state level and have a perception more suitable voting intentions.
“There are likely voters and registered voters. Probable voters have more weight in the polls,” explained the political scientist. “The model says that the most likely voters are the oldest: the older the voter, the more likely they are to vote,” he added. “Age is the most reliable element to predict the vote.”
On the other hand, “there was a lot of talk that by connecting with people they did not want to admit that they were going to vote for Trump,” the professor recalled.
“There was a certain shame, not in the working class, but especially in the upper social classes, white people with higher education.”
According to Daniela Melo, there was “a disagreedancia very big “on what people admitted and how they voted.” That has radically changed “now, he considered, giving the example of Portuguese descendant John Oliveira, Member of the New York City School Committee Bedford, Massachussetts, who put up a fence electrified to protect the pro-Trump sign in front of his home.
One month before election day 03 November, Daniela Melo said that the polls have remained stable and that this time there are no factor of disgust that led many people not to vote for the Democratic candidate four years ago.
“THE Biden he may not be the best candidate, but he is not a Clinton ”, analyzed the professor.
“Hillary was a symbol of everything that had gone wrong for the working class, a symbol of the neoliberalism, the opening of markets, NAFTA, “he exemplified.” Joe Biden it doesn’t necessarily promise an improvement on the various fronts that those who voted for Bernie Sanders want to see. But it promises to return to a certain normality ”.
For the political scientist, this may be enough in this electoral cycle. “The indications are that Biden it will be able to attract the vote of moderate and independent republicans ”, explained.
“In a way, being moderate and promising a return to normalcy is enough to get these votes,” he said. “This is the real anti-Trump election.”
After the first debate with the president, during which there were insults and accusations, Joe Biden slightly increased his lead. According to the average registered by the platform Five thirty eight, the Democrat now collects 50.9% of the voting intentions, compared to 42.7% of the president.
Despite the stability of the polls in recent weeks, Daniela Melo said that “there are many factorsand that everything is possible. There are paths to victory for both sides ”.
The vote-by-mail issue and the different accounting deadlines in the states make it possible for a legal battle to exist over the identification and certification of the winner.
“Personally, I see a perfect storm here,” Melo said. “November will be a critical time for American democracy.”
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