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Pharmaceutical industry experts warned on Tuesday that group immunity through covid-19 vaccines will be achieved at different speeds globally, anticipating that the United States will be the first to achieve it in the second quarter of 2021.
According to the projections of the same experts, and in comparison with the Americans, Europe will have to wait a few more months and the Latin American region almost a year.
These calculations, presented today by analyst firm Airfinity at an International Federation of Pharmaceutical Industry Associations (IFPMA) press conference, suggest the West may achieve group immunity over the next year, while other regions of the world they can only achieve this goal in 2023.
Noting that these predictions may change due to the effectiveness of future covid-19 vaccines, Airfinity CEO Rasmus Bech Hansen said that the calculations developed indicate that the United States of America (USA) will be the first country where group immunity will be achieved, followed by neighboring Canada, which will also reach this goal in the second quarter of 2021.
The Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine has a “favorable safety profile”
The United States is the country most affected by the current pandemic crisis, both in number of deaths and in cases, with a total of 283,746 deaths and 14,955,025 registered cases, according to the most recent balance of the US Johns Hopkins University.
In the United States, there is still no licensed or approved vaccine against COVID-19.
Cited by international agencies, Airfinity projections predict that the UK, which started its national vaccination campaign today, will be the third country to achieve group immunity, also in mid-2021.
European country most affected by the current health crisis (with more than 61 thousand deaths and more than 1.7 million cases of contagion by the new coronavirus), the United Kingdom is the first in the world to have authorized the use of the anti-virus vaccine. covid. 19 developed by the North American pharmaceutical group Pfizer and the German company BioNTech and was the first Western country to initiate its vaccination campaign.
Analysis of the results of the Oxford / AstraZeneca vaccine confirms an effectiveness of up to 90%
Airfinity calculations also predict that in the European Union (EU) area, where Portugal is integrated, group immunity will be achieved in the third quarter of next year, while in Australia it will be necessary to wait until the end of 2021.
The Latin American region will have to wait until the end of the first quarter of 2022 to achieve group immunity, added the same projections, which also advanced that Japan should only reach that goal at the beginning of the second quarter of that year.
China, where the first cases of covid-19 disease were detected in late 2019, group immunity could be achieved in the third quarter of 2022, according to the same calculations.
The prospects are even less encouraging for India or Russia.
Despite being a leading producer of vaccines for various diseases, India will only be able to achieve the immunity of the much desired group in the first quarter of 2023, while forecasts for Russia point to a wait that goes beyond the first three months of that year.
“One of the big challenges will be the production of large doses of vaccines,” said the CEO of Airfinity, a company that provides data to pharmaceutical companies and government entities.
The covid-19 pandemic has already claimed at least 1,545,320 deaths as a result of more than 67.5 million cases of infection worldwide, according to a report by the French agency AFP.
The disease is transmitted by a new coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2) detected in late December 2019 in Wuhan, a city in central China.
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