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The country lost 134,000 assets in less than a decade. The growth prospects are bad. In 2050, the Portuguese would have to work eight more years in addition to 64 for the system to work.
Portugal is one of the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) where workers will have to work more than 64 or 65 years to maintain the weight of the population of working age compared to the total population.
According to an OECD study, within 30 years, if nothing changes in the productive and demographic structure, the Portuguese will have to work, on average, another 8 years beyond that reference age, which means that the weight of the The population capable of working only remains stable, at current levels, if these people in active conditions retire at 72 years or more.
Poverty makes the situation worse
The case of Portugal is especially serious, since the OECD assumes in its calculations that the retirement age is even among the highest of the group of more than 40 economies studied. Portugal has managed to extend its professional or productive life in 5 years, but even so, it is not enough to stabilize the system in the coming decades.
In addition to the aging problem, the organization says that the Portuguese GDP per capita should fall by 4.9% in 2030, but if we extend the horizon until 2040 or 2050, the impoverishment is even more serious. In a baseline scenario, GDP per capita falls by 11% by 2040 or 15% by 2050.
For many countries (such as Spain and Korea), the pressure to work more years in the so-called third age is great because “fertility is low”, aging is an increasingly strong phenomenon (associated with longer life expectancy) and the prospects Long-term growth is frankly poor in the eyes of these economists.
The OECD explains in the study “Promotion of an active population including age” that “the maximum age limit for working life (65 years by reference) will have to increase substantially to avoid a decrease in the relative size of the population active “.
Solution? “An extension in what is defined as the age group of the main workers in about 6 years until 2050.” This is the average for the OECD as a whole. In the case of Portugal, as mentioned, the years of additional work (in addition to 64 years) are 8. In the case of Spain, it amounts to 10.
The organization admits that governments have not been afraid to look at the demographic winter. “The extension of working life is already happening. The effective ages to leave the labor market in the OECD have increased by approximately two and a half years for men and 3 years for women between 2000 and 2019.” In Portugal, professional life was extended “more than 5 years” in the 19 years analyzed.
Less 134 thousand assets
Portugal has lost 134,000 productive (active) people since 2011. In other words, it has never recovered from the impact of the previous crisis. In 2020, the pandemic appeared and inactivity increased further.
Official reform
The normal retirement age without penalty was raised to 66 years and six months in 2021, one month more than this year. And in 2022, it increases another month, to 66 years and seven months.
Pensions at risk
“Due to low fertility and aging”, the group aged 65 and over will gain more and more weight, “putting pressure on pension systems and the standard of living.”
The OECD calls for incentives
Great efforts will be needed in public and private policies to encourage workers to prolong their professional lives as long as they can, want and need ”.
Invest in health
The OECD advocates for more “investments in the financial security and health of workers throughout their lives” and more qualifications to “be resilient into old age”.
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