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Even before the state of emergency was declared, the Portuguese naturally began to stay more and more at home, with this move beginning Oct. 11-17, three weeks before mobility restrictions were announced in the 121 critical counties.
These are some of the conclusions that can be drawn from the analysis of Portuguese mobility data, measured by PSE, a company specialized in data analysis and statistics. “If in weeks 40 to 42 the average confinement on weekdays was 29%, now, in week 44 to 32.5% and in week 45 to 32.7% of the Portuguese in the universe of study ”, read in the press release.
To achieve these values, the figures that correspond to the usual tendency to stay at home, the calls natural confinement and that, before the pandemic, it was, on a weekly average, between 25% and 28%.
It is from the week of October 11 to 17, during weekdays, that this movement begins to be felt. “This anticipation movement, which was reflected in an increase in additional containment of around 6%, corresponded to the movement of approximately 420 thousand Portuguese, and it was carried out mainly by the working population between 25 and 45 years old ”, the document adds. “In this movement to anticipate the civic duty of confinement and compulsory telework, those who had the possibility to confine and remain in telework were confined in advance.”
The conclusion of the PSE is clear: the population that is in a position to comply with the duty of confinement is doing so and there are segments of the population, over 60 years of age, that contract their mobility when there are more cases of Covid-19. “It was, in fact, this segment that was most confined in week 45. In summary, if part of the workforce anticipated confinement, the older age groups responded to the duty of confinement.”
To further reduce circulation and obtain “higher levels of confinement”, the PSE only sees two hypotheses: “With the closure of schools (third cycle and higher) or with a new total confinement (confinement) that the government wants to avoid” .
Another conclusion that can be drawn, which calls into question the dimension of the practical effect of the mandatory curfew, is that theThe Portuguese spend a lot of time at home between 11 p.m. and 5 a.m. current curfew time. “Even in the pre-pandemic period, the night lockdown was already between 88% and 90% of the population,” the PSE advances in the press release. In April, the month of the first peak of the pandemic, the value rose to an average of 96%.
This week, that value was reached again after the mandatory curfew was decreed and both on Monday, November 9 and Tuesday, it reached 97%.
On the other hand, the Portuguese have not completely abandoned their homes and the majority of the population leaves the house at least once a day. “During the last week (week 45), the percentage of people who left home at least once was 90%,” says the note, a figure that drops to 87% if we only count the working days.
