The Portuguese adhere less to the closure than in March. Mobility is close to the pre-pandemic average

The state of emergency that began on January 22 had less effect in terms of lockdowns than the one enacted in March 2020, during the first phase of the pandemic. According to statistics worked by the PSE consulting firm, in none of the days covered by the most recent state of emergency were the values ​​of adherence to mandatory retirement that were detected in the first state of emergency that began on March 18 of last year. .

The statistics of the “Confinement at home” show that on January 23, Saturday, it was the one with the highest number of affiliates, with a total of 65% of citizens complying with the mandatory discharge.

In contrast, in last year’s state of emergency, the first Saturday (March 21) recorded a 69% adherence rate to “Home Confinement.”

The comparison between the two pandemic periods shows an even greater discrepancy in accessions to the running of the bulls on the first Sundays covered by the respective states of emergency. While in March 2020, Portuguese adherence to the “Confinamento em Casa” reached 73%, on Sunday, January 24, this indicator did not exceed 57% – and decreased in the following days, always remaining below the values ​​registered in the first phase of the pandemic, until 46% arrived on Friday. Which means that more than half the population will not have followed the order to stay home, at least for part of that day.

The PSE points to “some erosion in the confinement in recent days” last week, but it also identifies a factor that will have a greater weight in the confinement: “only with the closings of the schools could it be possible to reach the Confinamento no Lar above 50% ”.

The consultancy also focuses on the trends recorded last Thursday and Friday. After an initial adherence to containment measures due to the latest state of emergency, the Portuguese again showed signs of increased mobility in the last two working days of last week. Which reveals that there were more people leaving the house.

The data compiled by the PSE reveal a “clear reduction” of the “Confinamento en Casa” during Friday, January 29, which did not exceed 46.4% of the national population. On Thursday, January 28, this index pointed to a confinement of 48.6%.

In addition to this data, another point that points to a possible loss of adherence to containment measures: last Friday’s “Mobility Index” was estimated by the PSE at 72% – only three percentage points less than the “Mobility Index” Mobility “” of 75% of the population that had been estimated as the average before the pandemic.

“This trend is relatively worrying, as the pandemic situation reaches new highs and we have much of the business and school activity closed,” says the PSE, admitting in a statement that most Portuguese may not have adopted all the containment measures recommended by the Government.

The PSE statement also states that last Monday’s confinement was respected by 55.6% of the Portuguese, being accompanied by a mobility index of 59%. On Tuesday, adherence to confinement dropped to 53.2% and the mobility index rose to 60%. On Wednesday, the lockdown stood at 53.3%, with the mobility index climbing to 61%.

“In the week of January 11, the indices were close to 100, that is, perfectly in line with the mobility that existed before the pandemic. On January 15 there is a considerable reduction in the mobility of the population, initiating a downward trend, which culminated with the minimum of 59, on January 25 ”, details the PSE statement.

Statistical experts analyze adherence to confinements based on two concepts: one that calls itself “natural confinement” and reflects the percentage of people who choose to stay at home, even without measures such as those promulgated by the state of emergency; and a second, which is added to the first, but which gives the name of additional confinement and which includes the Portuguese who, by compulsory charge, stay at home. PSE calculations reveal that the additional lockdown started last week at 31%, but after that figure recorded on Monday, it gradually decreased to 23%. Which may indicate that, last Friday, 77% of citizens who, eventually, should have been covered by the mandatory collection measures, ended up leaving home.

The average additional confinement recorded during business days reached 27.2% at the end of January. There are almost ten percentage points of difference compared to the 36.5% registered after the containment measures applied during the first phase of the pandemic, between March and April of last year.

The PSE study is based on data collected from 3,670 users of a mobile phone application that allows each participant to be permanently located through satellite communications. The volunteers participating in the study are representative of 6,996,113 Portuguese over 15 years of age who live in the Greater Porto, Greater Lisbon, North Coast, Central Coast and Faro District regions. The margin of error is set at 1.62%, with a 95% confidence interval, reports the PSE.