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The North American website FiveThirtyEight, run by polling magician Nate Silver, joined the list of those who project Sporting to win the title of Portuguese soccer champion. After having kept the Alvalade club behind FC Porto and Benfica, despite the achievement of leadership in Liga NOS by the players trained by Ruben Amorim, the website adjusted the calculations with the results of the last days, which increased Leonine points advantage over rivals, and now attributes a 78% chance that Sporting will finish the season in first place, against just 15% of the same success for title champion FC Porto and just 4% for Benfica and Sporting de Braga.
In addition to the enormous favoritism regarding the first place, also recognized by the Football Observatory, a Swiss organization that announced the end of a fast champion title that has lasted since 2002, Sporting is practically guaranteed to qualify for the next edition of the Champions League. in which Portugal will have two guaranteed participants and a third dependent on the qualification in play off. In addition to the 78% chance of being champions, the Verdiblancos have a 16% chance of being second in the Liga NOS, a 5% chance of being relegated to third place and only 1% of repeating fourth place last season.
The FiveThirtyEight projection indicates that Sporting will add 81 points (they now have 51, with 15 games still to be played), seeing the current advantage in relation to FC Porto reduced to seven points (73), with Benfica to 12 points (69) and shortly after Sporting de Braga, with a 13-point disadvantage (68). The fifth place, the last to give access to European competitions (in this case, as in fourth place, to the Europa League), will be Paços de Ferreira, which will have to maintain the advance in relation to Vitória de Guimarães, while Farense would be forced to a liguilha with the third classified in Second League, and Boavista and Famalicão, who would be the “red lantern”, would end up relegated.
In comparison, the Observatório do Futebol projects that the sportinguistas celebrate the end of the long fast with a total of 82 points, nine points from FC Porto (73), while Sporting de Braga would supplant Benfica in last place on the podium, and also the last to allow access to the next edition of the Champions League, with 67 points for the Arsenal players and 66 for the Reds.
Little chance of staying invincible
Despite the lion’s advantage, the North American website maintains that FC Porto has a 49% chance of forcing Sporting’s first defeat (so far it has added 16 wins and three draws in the Liga NOS) when the whites and whites visit the Stadium do Dragão. on February 27, reducing Sporting’s chances of victory to 25% and a draw to 26%. If this last scenario occurs, the result of the first round is repeated, when there was a 2-2 draw at the Estádio de Alvalade.
Other possible defeats for Sporting, according to the FiveThirtyEight statistical model, will be the “visits” to Sporting de Braga (with the home team having a 39% chance of victory, compared to a 34% loss and a 28% draw), scored at the end of April, and Benfica, in the penultimate round, with the Second Circular rivals with a 47% chance of triumphing over the presumed national champion, while Sporting has a 26% chance of repeating the victory of Alvalade in Luz and a 27% draw. However, based on web calculations, it is possible that the lions will take the field of play with a guaranteed title.
It also happens that FC Porto, which has a 44% chance of being runner-up and a 26% chance of going down to third, runs the risk of losing more points, that is, against Benfica (the website indicates a 44% chance win the red, 31% win and 24% draw), which will be forced to another close duel in mid-March, since Sporting Braga has a 37% chance of scoring three points in the reception to the reds , who have a 38% chance of winning.
Advantages for both Manchester clubs
FiveThirtyEight’s statistical model, created by Nate Silver and Jay Boice, is based on the football power index, described as the “best estimate of a team’s overall strength,” which translates into the number of goals expected to score. or suffer. an average team on a neutral field. For this, the performance of the previous season and the market value of the squads on the Transfermarkt website are taken into account, which explains the initial disadvantage of Sporting. It has 70.5 points in this index, well below the 74.5 points for FC Porto and 73.1 for Benfica, in addition to not being much above the 65.5 points attributed to Sporting de Braga.
The Liga NOS is one of those where the site has more certainty about the winner, but there are still more doubts than in the Premier League, where Manchester City, which has the Portuguese Ruben Dias, João Cancelo and Bernardo Silva, appears with a 98% chance of being the English champion, with Bayern Munich having an 86% chance of renewing the German title. Much more disputed continues the Spanish championship, where Atlético de Madrid (515) beats Barcelona (34%) and Real Madrid (12%), as well as the French, with a 58% chance for Paris Saint Germain 22% for Lille and 18% for Olympique de Lyon. Or the Italian, in which case there is bad news for Cristiano Ronaldo, as Juventus only have 18% to revalidate the title, far behind Inter Milan, who currently lead and have a 59% chance of winning the championship. .
As for the Champions League, they also lead Manchester City, with a 37% chance of winning in the final, compared to 13% for Barcelona, 11% for Bayern Munqiue, 7% for Liverpool and 6% for Real Madrid. As for FC Porto, the only “survivor” of the national contingent, it appears only in 14th position, with a 2% chance of reaching the final and less than one percent of winning.
Nor are there good prospects for Portuguese clubs in the Europa League, although Bruno Fernandes and Manchester United are the big favorites, with an 11% chance of winning and an 18% chance of reaching the final. They are followed by Real Sociedade, Leicester, Arsenal and Naples, while Benfica is only 18, with a 2% chance of winning the competition, and Sporting de Braga remains in 24th, with a 2% chance of reaching the Final.
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