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The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) estimates that, if Portugal maintains the currently adopted restrictions, it will register “very low levels” of new cases of covid-19 in December, followed by fewer hospital admissions and deaths.
“In the most recent projections, we estimate that 22 out of 31 Member States [da União Europeia e do Espaço Económico Europeu] they will have a reduction in the number of confirmed cases and, subsequently, in hospital admissions and deaths, to very low levels ”, indicates the ECDC in a written response sent to the Lusa agency.
Portugal is one of those countries, but this only if “they maintain the response measures in force on November 18, 2020 and until the end of the forecast period, which is December 25, 2020,” adds the European agency, referring to the report. released this week.
At a time when the epidemiological situation of the covid-19 disease continues to worsen in Portugal, with new maximum daily hospitalizations and intensive care, the country is in a state of emergency, with restrictions on circulation on public roads during the weekends. weekdays and weekends and trips between municipalities on holidays, more limited hours of shops and restaurants and mandatory use of masks on the street and in the workplace.
If these measures continue to be adopted in Portugal, the ECDC foresees, in the report published this week with short-term projections on the evolution of the epidemiological situation in the European Union (EU), that after a spike in infections in mid-November, will register a sharp slowdown in December, which is expected to culminate in fewer than 2,000 cases a day in January.
In the case of the daily number of deaths, hospitalizations and admissions to intensive care, the peak is expected to be reached in December, according to this European agency, which forecasts a slowdown in January.
“Given the response measures currently in place, we anticipate that more than half of the EU Member States and the European Economic Area will see a reduction of more than 50% in the daily number of confirmed cases, and a subsequent reduction in the associated hospital demand and deaths, ”says the ECDC in the report.
At the same time, “more than two-thirds of the member states are expected to experience some decrease in the daily rate of confirmed cases as a result of current policies,” he adds.
The European public health agency admits, however, that these projections “remain a great challenge, as they depend heavily on the policies adopted by the Member States.”
In the case of the estimates released this week, “they were made shortly after the implementation of new measures, including orders and recommendations to stay at home”, so “little data is observed on their impact and wide ranges of uncertainty ”, Safeguards the ECDC. .
Another scenario considered by the ECDC in this report was if “behavior returned to April 1, 2020, when the strictest measures were in force throughout Europe”, the agency verifying that, in this scenario, “all countries would witness a decrease in the incidence of covid-19 ”.
Based in Sweden, ECDC’s mission is to help European countries respond to disease outbreaks.
The covid-19 pandemic has already claimed more than 1.4 million deaths in more than 60 million cases of infection worldwide.
In Portugal, the barriers of 4,000 deaths and 280,000 confirmed cases of infection have already been overcome.
The disease is transmitted by a new coronavirus detected in late December 2019 in Wuhan, a city in central China.
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