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The difference between the two largest parties is still large, but PS (38.5%) and PSD (25.4%) have risen, up more than one point compared to November, according to the latest Aximage poll. for DN, JN and TSF. Another highlight was the growth of the Liberal Initiative (3.5%), the fall of the PAN (4.7%) and the virtual disappearance of the CDS (0.3%).
December brought good news for the Socialists. The PS does not seem to suffer from the scandal of the Foreigners and Borders Service (the minister pays the bill, with two thirds of the Portuguese defending his departure), with the restructuring of TAP (the country is divided between paying the price or letting it go to the bankruptcy) or with successive records of deaths caused by the pandemic. According to the survey, it rises 1.3 percentage points from one month to another, reaches the best result of the last four months and is still worth more than the sum of the right-wing parties alone.
A right for which the month of December was also relatively lavish (the exception is CDS). The PSD, for example, recovered a point and a half and slightly smoothed the slippage in November (it lost three points at the time), and is now strictly in the mean of the results of the last five Aximage barometers (25.4%). The less positive side for Rui Rio is that he is still more than two points away from what he achieved in the last legislatures and 13 points below the Socialists.
Enough in the fight with BE
But it is to the right of the PSD where the news is better, although for different reasons. Immediately for Chega. Not because of the rise (just two tenths), but because it repeats a result above seven points (7.7%) and continues to fight for third place with Bloco de Esquerda (8.5%). The radical right benefited from the PSD trip to the Azores a month ago and now appears to take advantage of André Ventura’s media exposure as a presidential candidate.
The Liberal Initiative also stands out, reaching 3.5%. It has the best result since July, but we will have to wait to see if the trend continues, or if it is the temporary effect of Tiago Mayan’s candidacy for the presidential elections (the Liberals had already crossed the three-point barrier in October, without embargo not sustained).
The truth is that what we can call the new right is clearly in an upward process: radicals and liberals add up to more than 11 percentage points this time, which means that they would be worth nine more points than those achieved in the 2019 legislatures. , now reduced to PSD, is worth six points less.
Communists without oscillations
To the left of the PS, the changes are slight. BE is recovering in part from the sharp drop in November, perhaps because the negative effects of lead on the State Budgets were mitigated (its electorate asked for an understanding with the Socialists). Blockers score 8.5%, a score about the same as the average of Aximage’s last five opinion polls. As for the CDU (5.7%), the good news is its irreproachable stability (since July it has never fluctuated more than four tenths). The bad news is that he is half a point below the last legislatures, which went wrong.
Still a note for PAN, which is one of December’s big losers. The animal and environmental party has dropped almost two points from one month to the next and is now forecasting 4.7%. This is the first decline since July, but it is also true that it is strictly in the average of the last five surveys. There are two possible explanations for losing your breath: you no longer have the leading role in budget negotiations and you are the only one of the small parties that does not have a presidential candidate, losing the media.
PD almost always ahead
When comparing the results of the two largest parties in the different segments, the PS remains ahead in all regions, although with a small advantage in the North, which is the most generous for the PSD.
Regarding the age groups, Rui Rio’s party achieved a small victory: it was ahead among the youngest (18 to 34 years), with 29.5%. Socialists improve their results as the electorate ages, reaching 45.7% among those over 65.
Another fact that distinguishes the electorate of the two parties is gender. If the PSD has strictly the same result in men and women, the PS shows a female inclination, which is accentuated in this survey, reaching 45.1% among women (14 percentage points more than the male vote).
Details
A question of gender
Socialists (plus 14 percentage points), PAN (3.7) and blockers (3.5) are the parties with the highest female tendency. Chega (10.6), CDU (5.3) and Iniciativa Liberal (2.4) are the most masculine parties. The PSD is the only one where there is a gender balance.
The left is worth more
The block on the right is growing and is now worth 36.9 percentage points (2.3 points more than in November). But the so-called contraption does not show weakness either: the three parties on the parliamentary left are worth 52.7 points (1.8 more than in the last barometer).
