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Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa would be elected in the first round if the presidential elections are held today. In this second survey by Pitagórica for TVI and the newspaper Observador, the current president of the Republic leads the way, prominently, with 68% of voting intentions. Regarding the first survey, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa registered a slight fall of 0.9%. It is not surprising, therefore, that there is a slip of 5 percentage points, from 69% to 64% of those surveyed, which positively values his work as President of the Republic. Only 8% make a poor assessment of their functions as head of the nation, a drop of 1 percentage point in relation to the previous survey.
In the survey, which has a margin of error of 3.99%, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa would win the elections even without the distribution by the candidates of 16.5% of the current undecided, by collecting 55.3% of voting intentions. This poll anticipates 2.1% of white and invalid votes. And regarding the existence of one or two electoral rounds, the issue seems to be completely resolved with 84% of those surveyed thinking that the star in Belém he will continue to be Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa on January 24 and 82% would like this scenario.
If in this presidential race there seems to be an indisputable winner, the second place on the podium is being much more disputed. One of the new data to highlight in this survey is the rise of the candidate André Ventura, who is closest to Ana Gomes. The leader of the Chega party occupies the third place with 10.7% of the votes (obtained 9.0% of the votes in the previous poll) and the Socialist candidate with 10.9% of the votes occupies the second place , despite a slight slippage, since it obtained 11% of the votes.
But despite the rise of André Ventura, respondents believe that the second place in these elections belongs to Ana Gomes. When asked who is second in the presidential elections, 53% of those surveyed believe that it will be the socialist Ana Gomes and only 18% are convinced that it will be André Ventura.
Returning to the voting intentions in these presidential candidates, the blocker Marisa Matias appears in the fourth position of the ranking by convincing only 5.1% of the voters and does not seem, at this time, to be a threat to the dispute for a place on the podium. The candidate supported by the Bloco de Esquerda is the one that falls the most in the voting intentions of this poll, since she previously convinced 6.5% of those surveyed. And higher up on the board, only 8% believe they can reach second place in this election.
At a time when the elections scheduled for January 24 are almost a month away, the communist João Ferreira appears unshakable with 3.5% of the voting intentions and the liberal candidate Tiago Mayan does not exceed 1% of the votes. voting intentions. Vitorino Silva, better known as Tino de Rans, does not appear very far from the candidate supported by the Liberal Initiative, winning 0.8% of the voting intentions in this Pythagorean poll.
And where do the votes of the Portuguese electorate go? The shift in party votes in presidential elections in which the winner appears to be more than chosen already raises the question of who votes for whom. According to the Pythagorean survey for TVI and the newspaper Observador, it is in the voters of the PS in the 2019 Legislatures where Marcelo will obtain 71% of the votes, more than the PSD itself, where 66% of those surveyed win. It should also be noted that the candidate Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa only convinces 52% of the voters of the CDS-PP, a party that gave him public support after a heated internal debate in the political commission headed by Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos. In fact, according to this poll, 29% of centrist respondents prefer to vote for André Ventura.
What do the Portuguese think of the actions of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in relation to the actions of the Government? Despite expressing their intention to vote for the current president, 66% of those surveyed considered that Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa should demand more from the António Costa government. In this survey, 42% of respondents say they trust the President of the Republic more than the Prime Minister, but 44% admit they trust both equally.
If we base the transfer of votes on the legislative elections of 2019, Ana Gomes receives in these presidential elections only 5.4% of the voters of the PS who elected António Costa as prime minister, but Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa receives a transfer of votes 27%. %. In this chapter of the ballot trips, it should also be noted that 3.5% of André Ventura’s voters in these presidential elections voted for Rui Rio in the last legislatures.
When we take into account the notoriety of the candidates in these presidential elections, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is the absolute champion, reaching 100%, followed by André Ventura, who obtained 95.1% of notoriety. Marisa Matias appears in third place, ahead of Ana Gomes. It should be noted that the candidate Vitorino Silva appears with more notoriety than the communist João Ferreira, but when we look at the table for the rejection of candidates, it is Tino de Rans who heads it, followed by the candidate Orlando Cruz, who has already surrendered and thus, Belém no longer counts in this race. On the rejection table, blocker Marisa Matias registers an increase and now has 50% of the electorate to reject it. In this black table, only Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and Ana Gomes are below 50%, that is, they passed the test with a positive note.
DATA SHEET
The fieldwork was carried out between December 10-13 and 17-20, 20202. A total sample of 629 interviews was collected which, for a confidence level of 95.5%, corresponds to a maximum margin of error of ± 4.0%. The selection of respondents was carried out through the random generation of “mobile phone” numbers, maintaining the proportion of the 3 main operators identified by the ANACOM report, when necessary, fixed numbers are randomly selected for support compliance with the sampling plan. Interviews are collected through telephone interviews (CATI – Computer Assisted Telephone Interview).
The study aims to evaluate the opinion of Portuguese voters on issues related to the elections, namely the main protagonists, the moments of the campaign, as well as the intention to vote in the different parties.
The response rate was 55.03%. The technical direction of the study is in charge of Rita Marques da Silva.
The abstention rate for the survey is 56.6%, which corresponds to those interviewed who, initially, refused to answer the interview because they did not intend to vote in this election.
The complete technical file, as well as all the results, were made available to the Media Regulatory Body, which made them available for consultation online at the time.
