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In light of the numbers that have been released, Portugal is not exactly doing well in the fight against COVID-19. It is true that the fatality rate has decreased considerably, but this is also due to the decrease in the number of infections in the elderly population, the greater knowledge of health professionals and a better response from hospital centers.
A recent projection reveals that in December Portugal could reach 20 thousand cases a day! But there is an even scarier scenario!
It is true that they are only projections, but they are based on the current scenario. According to a study, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) of the University of Washington, Portugal could reach December with almost 20,000 daily cases of COVID-19. Such a scenario could cause around 8,000 deaths by the end of the year.
This first projection is based on the current scenario in which the population continues to wear masks in public and without relief from restrictive measures.
In addition, schools can be closed if the numbers skyrocket, that is, the strictest confinement measures are reintroduced for six weeks when the level of 8 deaths per million inhabitants is reached, including the closure of schools and non-essential services. If this does not happen, Portugal can even reach 80 thousand cases a day in December. The peak of infections could begin on December 3.
A third, more optimistic scenario considers that the use of masks increases to 95% of the population in the space of seven days and then containment measures are reintroduced if the level of eight deaths per million inhabitants is exceeded. In this scenario, projections point to a more gradual increase in cases, with a peak of 17,000 daily infections at the end of December and 4015 deaths at the end of the year, with the reactivation of confinement measures at the end of December.
The study also reveals that, at the peak of the pandemic, 1,754 beds may be needed in Intensive Care Units for patients with COVID-19 alone. 1600 fans will also be required. The projection also reveals that 4,262 beds would be required, within installed capacity, for (normal) hospitalizations for COVID-19.
The STAYAWAY COVID app is a valuable aid to combat COVID-19 ...
In addition to the use of the mask, it should be noted that in Portugal there is also the STAYAWAY COVID application that helps to obtain chains of contagion. The Portuguese app STAY COVID, whose installation is voluntary, allows to identify, quickly and anonymously and through physical proximity, contagion networks by COVID-19.
It should be noted that today the meetings with INFARMED return, where these projections will be analyzed, they will understand the effect of public transport, StayAway Covid app and a future vaccine.
The IHME predicts that the COVID-19 pandemic could cause a total of 2.8 million deaths by the end of the year, estimating that the universal use of masks would reduce the impact by 30%, to two million deaths.
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