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In a few decades, we may have three months out of the year where maximum daily temperatures will be above 40 ° C. And this will be a phenomenon “much less slow than previously thought”, as revealed to DN David Carvalho, coordinator of the study of three researchers from the University of Aveiro (UA), which has just been published in the journal Climate Dynamics.
The conclusions are the result of the work of the team of scientist David Carvalho, made up of researchers Alfredo Rocha and Susana Cardoso Pereira, all from the Center for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM) of the UA. According to the study, temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula will rise “in a very worrying way” during this century. And predicts up to 2,100 average temperature increases of two to three degrees throughout the year, enough to cause serious impacts on the environment and, consequently, on public health.
In Portugal there are even regions that can register increases of four to five degrees Celsius in the daily maximum. This is the case throughout the interior, in addition to the Algarve and Alentejo. Now, knowing that this is where extreme phenomena have been taking place, degenerating into large and serious forest fires, the warning comes with a unique recipe, “which we must repeat until exhaustion: reduce greenhouse gas emissions.” “says David Carvalho.
Although the study looks at the entire Iberian Peninsula, it is true that “this trend is more frequent in south-central Spain and not so much in Portugal “, admits the scientist. However, “the implications could be huge,” he warns.
Based on the temperature increases detected in the study he coordinated, the UA scientist predicts that “the number of days a year with maximum temperatures above 40 degrees Fahrenheit could increase to about 50 days a year by the end of this century “.
The rise in thermometers is happening on all lines, putting the climate change issue back in the spotlight. The study designed and analyzed the surface temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula for two future periods, the first from 2046 to 2065 and the other from 2081 to 2100.
The results point to increases in daily temperature, not only in the average, but also in the maximum and minimum, for practically the entire territory of the Iberian Peninsula. The daily maximum temperatures will increase more than the average and the minimum temperatures will increase the minimum.
However, there is a great spatial variation in these temperature increases: for Portugal the increases will be around 1.5-2 degrees Celsius for the period 2046-2065 and 2-3 degrees Celsius for 2081-2100 in terms of temperature . Daily average. In the case of the maximum temperature, the increase could reach 4-5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
David Carvalho told DN that he narrowed his area of interest to this topic about 10 years ago, when he began his PhD. After a period working in the United States of America, he returned to Portugal and the UA to deepen what he had been studying for a long time. Meanwhile, the coordinating team has been dedicated to the study for the last five months. “Increases of approximately 2-3 degrees Fahrenheit in terms of average, maximum and minimum temperatures are enough to impact vital areas such as agriculture, forest fires, drought, desertification and their impacts on the health and well-being of people. .“, he underlines, recalling another factor, which is cause for great concern:” the almost total unanimity in future climate data regarding the generalized increase in temperature in the Iberian Peninsula, in all seasons, geographical areas and type of climate. ” “, whether they are average, maximum and minimum.
There is an urgent need to reduce gas emissions
David Carvalho insists that the emission into the atmosphere of large amounts of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, “are the main causes of the increase in temperature that we are already witnessing, and which will be amplified in the coming decades.” And for this reason, the UA scientist recalls that the solutions to counteract the rise in the thermometer are already known, but he emphasizes them once again: “betting heavily on the decarbonization of the socioeconomic model in which we live, that is, using production of energy that does not imply the emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, also betting on a more efficient use of our energy resources and avoiding the need to produce so many consumer goods ”.
“The only way forward is to spend less energy and resources and at the same time generate the energy we need without emitting greenhouse gases”, sums up David Carvalho.
In a note sent to the press this Wednesday, the UA summarizes the results in an apocalyptic way: “temperature increases” will roast “the Iberian Peninsula.” “The coordinator of the study admits that the term may shock the reader, but believes that “Sometimes it is necessary for society to shake up, to see if it starts to change habits, once and for all, before it’s too late.”
