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Experts warn that new SARS-CoV-2 infections could cross the “barrier of two thousand cases” this week in the North. The current transmissibility rate “allows for quick control.”
In statements to the Lusa agency, Óscar Felgueiras, a mathematician specializing in epidemiology at the University of Porto (U. Porto) stated that, “in the coming days, the North will overcome the barrier of two thousand cases” and “it would not be impossible, next week”. , they reach the “four thousand” new infections by the new coronavirus, which causes the covid-19. According to the balance of Wednesday of the General Health Directorate, the northern region recorded 1,379 daily infections.
Milton Severo, head of the projections of the Institute of Public Health of the University of Porto (ISPUP), clarified that the current transmissibility index (the so-called RT) is “a high value that allows a rapid uncontrolled”, therefore ” action is needed “.
Óscar Felgueiras warns that the data from the General Health Directorate (DGS) for every 100,000 inhabitants is an “underestimation of reality”, since there are differences between the sum of the number of cases in the municipalities and the total of cases in the region.
“In the last week, the sum of the counties gives 5,035 cases. But, according to the DGS bulletin, the total in the region is 7,489 cases, that is to say, this differential of 2,454 cases are the cases that are registered as in the North, but they have not assigned a county ”, he clarified.
According to the mathematician, the incidence in the northern region “is well above the maximum threshold” Incidence established by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control of 240 cases per 100,000 inhabitants for 14 days.
“The equivalent of 240 cases in two weeks is 120 in one week. From October 12 to 18, the region registered 210 cases, which means that the incidence is well above that level,” he said.
The official points out that the high incidence “constitutes a risk factor for the rest of the countrySo it is natural that the rest of the country also accompanies this rise ”.
If this trajectory continues, “it would not be impossible for the Northern region to reach some 4,000 cases in the week,” he said.
The mathematician observes that it is difficult to compare the different regions of the country, given the “specific characteristics” of each one, as well as the “quality of the data”, justifying the increase in cases in the North to “an unfortunate combination of factors.”
Milton Severo, from ISPUP, considers that “quickly” the North region will reach two thousand cases of contagion by the new coronavirus.
“We are with the RT somewhere between 1.2 and 1.4 which means that we are having 20% more cases and, having 20% more cases every five days, we quickly reach, in a week or two, two thousand cases, ”he said.
“The RT at 1.23 is a high value that allows us to quickly get out of control. If we do not control the value of RT quickly, the number of new infections can clearly increase each week, so action is necessary,” he warned.
According to the researcher, the number of workers in services and commerce, the number of workers in industry and the family dimension are the main variables that explain the difference between the evolution of the pandemic in the municipalities of the North region and the rest of the country.
“It is not the region that explains it, but the characteristics of each region. The determining factors for the exponential increase in cases in the North are different from the factors in the rest of the country,” said Milton Severo, highlighting that these factors are the that determine the increase. RT.
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