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mem statements to the Lusa agency, Oscar Felgueiras, a mathematician specializing in epidemiology at the University of Porto (U.Porto) said today that “in the next few days, the North will overcome the barrier of two thousand cases” and “it would not be impossible next week” to reach ” four thousand “new infections for the new coronavirus, which causes COVID-19-19.
Milton Severo, responsible for projections Institute of Public Health of the University of Porto (ISPUP), clarified that, with the Current RT is “a high value allowing quick control” so “action is needed”.
Oscar Felgueiras warns that the data of the Direction-General health (DGS) for every 100,000 inhabitants is a “understated of reality ”, to the extent that there are differences between the sum of the number of cases in the municipalities and the total of cases in the region.
“In the last week, the sum of the counties gives 5,035 cases. But, according to the DGS, the total in the region is 7,489 cases, that is, this differential of 2,454 cases are the cases that are registered as in the North, but do not have an assigned province ”, he clarified.
According to the mathematician, the incidence in the North region “is well above the maximum threshold” of incidence established by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control of 240 cases per 100,000 inhabitants for 14 days.
“The equivalent of 240 cases in two weeks is 120 in one week. October, the region registered 210 cases, which means that the incidence is well above that level ”, he mentioned.
The official points out that the high incidence “constitutes a factor risk for the rest of the country ”, so“ it is natural that the rest of the country also follows this rise ”.
Keeping this trajectory“It would not be impossible for North Korea to reach about 4,000 cases in the week,” he said.
The mathematician observes that it is difficult to compare the different regions of the country, given the “specific characteristics” of each one, as well as the “quality of the data”, justifying the increase in cases in the North to “an unfortunate combination of factors“.
Milton Severo, from ISPUP, considers that “quickly” the North region will reach two thousand cases of infection for the new coronavirus.
“We have RT somewhere between 1.2 and 1.4, which means we have 20% more cases, and by having 20% more cases every day, we quickly get, after a week or two, to two thousand cases.” , He said.
“The RT at 1.23 is a high value that allows for rapid uncontrolled. If we do not quickly control the RT value, the number of new infections it can go up clearly every week, so you have to act, “he warned.
According to the researcher, the number of workers in services and commerce, the number of workers in industry and the family dimension are the main variables that explain the difference between the evolution of pandemic in the northern region and the rest of the country.
“It is not the region that explains it, but the characteristics of each region. factors The determinants of the exponential increase in cases in the North are different from factors in the rest of the country, “said Milton Severo, highlighting that these are factors which determine the increase in RT.
A pandemic of COVID-19-19 has already caused more than 1.1 million deaths and more than 40.8 million cases of infection around the world, according to a report by the French agency AFP.
In Portugal, 2,229 people died out of 106,271 cases of infection confirmed, according to the most recent Direction-General health.
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