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If it is true that there are more cases of young people infected during the second wave of the pandemic, it is also true that during the first wave they were more protected. Across Europe, including the UK, schools have closed, moving from face-to-face learning to distance learning. As the infectious agent Covid-19 became more widely known, it was possible to note that the spread among children was less, that the majority were asymptomatic and suffered from fewer serious diseases. Among adolescents, the behavior of the virus was more similar to that of adults.
Schools reopened at the beginning of the school year and no studies have provided scientific evidence that going back to school has increased the spread of coronavirus in the community. Could the new variant, called B.1.1.7 or VUI 202012/01 (variant under investigation), bring different news?
Speculations, insists the infectologist Francisco Antunes, listing the factors that may be the cause of the increase in positive diagnoses. And it begins with the well-known English bad weather.
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“What are the weather conditions like in the UK at this time of year? There is a drop in temperature, an increase in humidity and that can affect the way the virus spreads ”, defends the retired professor. On the other hand, at this time of year, families naturally spend more time at home, with the windows closed due to the cold, which can increase transmission from parents to children.
We must also look at another factor: the infectious disease doctor recalls that, throughout Europe, the restriction measures have been relaxed and, after the increase in cases, they have become more demanding. “Is it the distance, the wearing of a mask, the confinement the same as two months ago? All of this needs to be seen before it is excluded and before we can say that this variant spreads faster. “
In late autumn, early winter, there is also a higher number of viruses circulating, precisely those that most often cause respiratory diseases in children. “These infections are very similar and we have to be sure that, in fact, the increase in cases has to do with the new strain.” To be absolutely sure, Francisco Antunes argues that comparative studies between children infected by this variant and with previous ones would be necessary. Only then can conclusions be drawn.
“There was a variant in Europe, which reached the United States, which was admitted to have greater transmissibility. But it disappeared and there were no solid data to support the claim ”, recalls the infectologist.
Even so, and about the decision of many countries to close the borders with the United Kingdom, he assures that it is better “to take measures in excess”.
And is the new variant already in Portugal? “Of course. It is very possible that it is. If there were border restrictions it would be more difficult, but as long as people travel, the virus continues. It spreads because there is mobility. If each of us were on our side, the virus would disappear.”
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Like Francisco Antunes, many voices in the scientific community point out that, for example, a variant may seem more contagious if it arises in an area with a higher population density or if it benefits from over-disseminated events. “The number of reservoirs [pessoas infetadas] it is larger in a city and there is more mobility ”, recalls the Portuguese doctor who, despite caution, does not rule out the hypothesis that evidence will be found that this variant, in fact, spreads more easily. Also, remember, it is normal for the most infectious variants to become dominant.
At Oxford University, Peter Horby, a specialist in infectious diseases, changed his confidence level from moderate to high when pointing out the transmissibility of the virus. “We are now very confident that this variant has a transmission advantage over other virus variants currently found in the UK,” he said on Monday.
Julian Hiscox, a professor of infectious diseases at the University of Liverpool, told the BBC that there is no evidence “at the moment” that the new variant is capable of infecting children more efficiently. At NERVTAG, Wendy Barclay, a virology specialist at Imperial College, joins Neil Ferguson, Dr. Lockdown. Mutations in the new variant are related to the way it binds to human cells, which may mean “that children are perhaps as susceptible to this virus as adults,” and we hope to see more young people infected.
Given the uncertainty about the new variant – the WHO confirmed that nine cases have already been detected in Denmark, one in the Netherlands, one in Italy and one in Australia – the pressure on the Boris Johnson government to close schools has increased . And there is one more piece of information: in South Africa, a variant with a mutation identical to that found in the United Kingdom (N501Y) also seems to pass from one host to another more quickly.
So who doesn’t want to wait to see the results? in the place They are the British teachers unions and the National Education Union (NEU) wrote a letter to Boris Johnson asking him to extend school closings beyond the Christmas holidays. In Scotland, the decision has already been made and for most students the holidays will run one week until January 11, followed by distance learning until January 15. In Ireland, general lockdown will be reinstated from December 24 to January 12, and it is not yet clear whether or not the return to schools will be postponed.
In London, despite pressure from unions to join that of managers, who also called for a postponement of the return to face-to-face education, Boris Johnson shows no signs of changing his mind, but the tone lost the vehemence of other days : “We want, if possible, to have the schools again at the beginning of January,” he defended. But common sense, the prime minister stressed, tells us that “we must follow the path of the pandemic.”
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