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Chega and Liberal Initiative already add more than ten percentage points, according to the Aximage survey for JN and TSF. PSD and CDS are lost, with almost irrelevant centrists.
More than an exercise in guessing the results, electoral polls, in particular regular barometers such as Aximage’s for JN and TSF, allow one to perceive electoral trends. One of the strongest with each new poll is the one announcing the emergence of a new parliamentary and party environment (including the PAN). It is true that the most profound changes are taking place on the right of the political spectrum.
See the evolution of the new Right and the traditional Right: the Liberal Initiative and Chega added little more than two points in the legislatures; a year later, they are worth almost ten points. PSD and CDS were worth 32 points in October 2019; now they add just 25 points. The situation of the Social Democrats is not famous, that of the Centrists is dramatic, with each passing month it approaches irrelevance (although the polls have traditionally had a difficult time measuring its value accurately).
The men of the radical right
The spearhead of this new right is clearly André Ventura. And proof of its stability and strength is that it maintains some characteristic features of barometer by barometer: an almost exclusively male electorate; constant strength in the 50-64 age group; an unusual deployment in the south and very reasonable in Lisbon, that is to say, in the largest constituency of the country.
The liberals are a few holes lower than the radical right and do not show the same stability, but they also support some distinctive features: the tendency to be men, the clear appreciation of a band of believers among the wealthier classes and their squareness. Lisbon Fort (most oscillating in Porto).
There is no doubt about the first (PS) and the second (PSD) in Lisbon. But the fight for third place in the region is in full swing, with four parties in the region scoring eight percentage points: CDU, BE, PAN and Chega.
The Bloco de Esquerda registers good results in the Central region on a recurring basis (in fact, it elects several deputies in these circles). In November it is no exception to the rule, scoring 13.2%, which leaves it isolated in third place.
PS is well distributed throughout the country, leading in all regions. The best projection is in the Central region and this is also where it has the greatest advantage for the PSD. For these, the main bulwark remains the North.
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