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Experts, politicians and social partners met this Thursday at the Infarmed headquarters in Lisbon to analyze (once again) the evolution of Covid-19 in Portugal. The extension of the state of emergency, the intention of which has already been confirmed by the Presidency of the Republic, was one of the topics discussed, along with the impact of the containment measures taken. Several caveats emerged from the meeting: the peak of infections should be reached by the end of this month and the vaccine should not arrive until 2021.
The transmission rate of Covid-19 has been decreasing, but the trend is not accompanied by a reduction in the number of new daily cases of Covid-19 infection. The alert was in charge of the researcher Manuel do Carmo Gomes, from the Lisbon Faculty of Sciences. Although there is a “national trend” of decrease in the Rt (transmissibility index), which will currently stand at 1.11, Manuel do Carmo Gomes considers it essential that the guard does not drop because “at the first opportunity, the Rt returns to get on “.
“In global terms, we are curbing the epidemic and we already have some predictions of where the peak will be, but we cannot lower our guard, in any way,” said Manuel do Carmo Gomes. According to the expert, during 88 days the cases have been growing in a “sustained” manner, with a daily average of 6,488 new cases (calculated with the effective numbers over seven days), but the Rt should drop “significantly to a level manageable in terms of hospital admissions ”.
Experts predict that the peak of Covid-19 infections will be reached “between November 25 and 30” and is expected to be around “7,000 cases”. Manuel do Carmo Gomes said that “it is necessary to reach the top, maintain the measures, lower the Rt significantly.” It would be desirable to “keep R below 1 continuously”. Even so, the incidence of new daily cases can remain in the thousands, entering “a plateau from which it is not easy to get out” and that will continue to be reflected in more hospitalized cases and more deaths.
The researcher from the Lisbon Faculty of Sciences also said that the peak of deaths is forecast “around the second week of December” and “will be around 95 to 100 deaths per day”.
Northern region with an incidence almost seven times higher than in April
The figures confirm that there is a higher incidence of new cases in the North, which is more than 960 new infections in the last 14 days for every 100,000 inhabitants. “Currently we are experiencing an incidence that is almost seven times higher than that registered in April at the peak of the pandemic and recently the trend was towards a certain slowdown,” said Óscar Felgueiras, a researcher at the Faculty of Sciences of the University of Porto.
As in the rest of the country, the age groups with the highest incidence are those of the active population between 20 and 49 years old, followed by those over 80 years of age, as well as those between 70 and 79 years old. The researcher from the Faculty of Sciences of the University of Porto warned that “the incidence is quite high”, taking into account that, even among the elderly, there are about 200 daily cases of people aged 80 years or more. “The current incidence is more than double that of the peak in April,” he said.
The 14-day incidence rate increased by 16% in the last week, with a trend, however, to slow down, with a growth variation of less than 9%. Regarding the age groups that are growing, they are children, 32% more, adolescents, 24% more, and the elderly over 80 years (26%) and 70 to 79 years, 21% more.
The figures raise concern considering that the limit of 240 per 100,000 inhabitants is already considered a risk.
Many Portuguese did not follow the rules well
Regarding compliance with the restrictive measures, the data reveal that not all Portuguese have strictly complied with the regulations, including the mandatory detention from 1:00 p.m. decreed for last weekend in the municipalities with “greater risk of contagion” . According to researcher Carla Nunes, from the National School of Public Health of the University of Lisbon, “about 35% of the people who say they left home in the last two weeks without going to work.”
Carla Nunes said that the questionnaires carried out on the population in recent months in Portugal reveal that only 50% of the Portuguese consider the containment measures announced by the Government “adequate”. The data also reveals that “about 70% of people” have “little or no confidence in the response of the National Health Service.” [SNS] to non-Covid cases ”and around 40% of the Portuguese have even avoided visiting health centers in non-urgent situations.
As for the vaccine, “the majority of Portuguese trust” in its development and efficacy, but only “25% are available to take it immediately as soon as it is ready.” “The vast majority admit that they prefer to wait,” said the researcher from the National School of Public Health.
Vaccine? Only early next year
The president of Infarmed, Rui Ivo, said that the deliveries of the first vaccines against Covid-19 should occur early next year “in installments.” In the first quarter, more than five million doses are expected to be available. In the second quarter, another eight million are expected to arrive and another two million in the last quarter of 2021.
Rui Ivo said there are contracts signed for four vaccines, three of which (BioNTech / Pfizer, AstraZeneca / Oxford and J & J / Janssen) are in a “more advanced stage of development” and for another Sanofi brand vaccine. However, the delivery of vaccines will depend on the authorizations of the European agency that supervises the sector. However, the process may have news later this year.
Second confinement different from the first
According to experts, the impact of the restrictive measures in this second wave was significantly different from the impact of the measures taken in March. “During the first wave, we had confinement and reduced contacts of the order of 70 and such percent in retail and leisure, of around 60% in the workplace and an increase in the presence at home of the order of 30%,” he explained Baltazar Nunes, coordinator of the epidemiological research unit of the National Institute of Health Dr. Ricardo Jorge.
Baltazar Nunes says that, in this second phase of the pandemic, the restrictive measures have caused “reductions, in retail trade and leisure, at most of the order of 30%”, values observed in the district of Lisbon and in the district of Port.
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