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The President of the Republic returns to 62% positive evaluations, after the peak of popularity registered in the November barometer. The prime minister maintains the result, with 55% positive notes. In confidence, however, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is worth three times more than António Costa.
The greater the rise, the greater the fall. The adage applies to Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, who, from November to December, experiences a sharp drop in popularity; it now has 62% positive ratings, according to the Aximage barometer for JN, DN and TSF. Even so, well above António Costa, who stands at 55%. What does not change is the balance of forces in terms of trust in one or the other: the president is still worth three times more (50%) than the prime minister (16%).
As far as Marcelo is concerned, what the monthly barometer shows is that he has returned to his usual level, that is, a percentage of positive valuations just above 60 percentage points and a positive balance of around 40 points ( difference between positive and negative evaluations). The 74% of positive marks it achieved in November did not become a trend.
Phalanx of socialist support
It is recalled that, during this month, the president was called to intervene in two controversial issues that burned the Government: in the TAP restructuring plan, in which he endorsed the solution, arguing that “the price must be paid”; and in the case of the death of the Ukrainian citizen Ihor Homenyuk, in which he even admitted the extinction of SEF and called for a “change of protagonists.”
This does not prevent, however, that, as in previous months, the biggest phalanx of support for Marcelo is that of the Socialist voters: not only 84% give him a positive score, but they are quite divided when choosing between deliver your trust. to the president or prime minister of your party.
The support among those who vote for the PS is also one of the characteristics common to Marcelo and Costa, since the Socialists are also massively satisfied with their leader: 89% give him a positive assessment. Clear difference only between PSD voters: Prime Minister achieves small positive balance, President gets 70% of positive evaluations.
Elderly and women
Another common trait lies in the age of the supporters: both are firmly anchored in older voters, with an advantage for Marcelo, who gets 78% (compared to 61% for Costa). Another piece of information is that both enjoy greater favor among the female electorate (eight points more than among men in the case of Costa; seven more in the case of Marcelo).
The separation of waters becomes clearer when the Portuguese are asked to choose in whom they prefer to place their trust. The president gets 50% of the votes for himself, compared to 16% for the prime minister.
A result in line with the demand that the Portuguese understand that the President of the Republic must confront the Government: 71% think that Marcelo should be more demanding (as in November). The exceptions are among the Socialist and Communist constituencies.
September
Prime Minister, Government and Opposition as a whole accused the wear and tear of the crisis caused by the pandemic. The exception was the President of the Republic, with 64% positive evaluations. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa still had 47% confidence compared to 12% for António Costa. Marcelo’s biggest fans were already socialists (83% positive reviews). Costa fell that month, with 54% positive ratings (nine points less than in July). The Opposition went from positive to negative in all segments.
October
António Costa continued to fall (to 51%) and increasingly dependent on the approval of socialist voters, paying the bill for the deal in the State Budgets and the second wave of the pandemic, at this time already more acute than the first . Marcelo also accused some wear, with 60% (minus four points). There were several points in common between the two: greater support among the Socialists (85% for Costa and 84% for Marcelo) and a negative balance only between the three smaller parties on the right. In confidence, the advantage of Marcelo (45%) was maintained, with Costa winning only among the Socialists. The Opposition was catching its breath, but the balance was still negative.
November
Marcelo’s popularity soared to 74% (plus 14 points) and that of Costa dragged down, which reversed the downward trend (56%). The tough restrictions announced a few days ago, in the context of the state of emergency, with which the vast majority agreed, are the best explanation for this peak. They once again had socialist support in common (90% Costa, 83% Marcelo), but the Prime Minister was anchored on the left, with a negative balance on the right, and Marcelo was transversal. Marcelo was worth three times more in confidence and also won this match in the Socialists. The Opposition returned to the positive balance (13 points), a rare fact, with the paradox that the Socialists were the most satisfied. The main figure was Rio (35%), followed by Ventura and Catarina (both with 20%).
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