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What if Portugal were the target of a terrorist attack? What if there was an earthquake of catastrophic proportions? Or if a third world war started now? So what if the Portuguese economy suddenly entered a phase of unprecedented economic growth? Who would you like to have at the head of the Presidency of the Republic? Who, in your opinion, would be the most suitable supreme commander of the armed forces? Who would exercise the most effective magistracy of diplomatic influence, inside and outside the gates? The first answer to all these questions is invariable: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. But there are nuances that are interesting to highlight.
Before that detail, a panoramic look. Respondents to the Observer / TVI / Pythagorean survey were faced with a number of hypothetical scenarios. In addition to those already mentioned, he wondered about a possible island referendum on the independence of the Azores, about the end of the single currency or the need for a new intervention by the International Monetary Fund in Portugal. Seven scenarios, some predictably more unlikely than others. And, for everyone, the same answer: Marcelo would be the best person to, from Belém, face each of these extreme situations. The most solid performance of the President of the Republic comes with the response to the scenario of a severe earthquake: 69% would like to have the current head of state in office. If the single currency ceases to exist, the force is less, but there are still 60% options in Marcelo. Competition is always many points away.
Once this framework has been made, two or three notes on the behavior of the respondents according to one or another more specific scenario.
For example, given the possibility of a terrorist attack on Portuguese soil, Ana Gomes, who almost always appears as the second most voted option, loses that position to André Ventura (the socialist adds 7% of the options and the leader of Chega 10 %). This is the most obvious scenario of an “exchange” between second and third position. But the same is true when respondents are asked who they would like to have in Belém if Portugal were to participate in a third world war. First, Marcelo (68%); then Ventura (8%); and only then, then, Ana Gomes (6%).
And who contributes most significantly to these results? In the example of the terrorist attack against Portugal – without forgetting that Marcelo would always be, and by a long distance, the first option – there are men, and those surveyed who are between 45 and 54 years old, from upper middle class and lower middle class, from the central area. and south and voters of the CDS and PSD. Ana Gomes only “wins” the leader of Chega in the Greater Oporto area and together with the constituencies of Bloco de Esquerda and PS. Faced with a world war, the situation repeats itself.
There are still two situations where there is a tie. This occurs in cases where the survey participants are forced to elect the president they wanted to have in the Belém Palace in a scenario in which the Azores held a referendum to make the leap from administrative autonomy to total independence ; and, also, in a hypothetical scenario in which the Portuguese economy begins a phase of frankly positive economic growth. There, the options (for a middle name in Belém) are divided between the two candidates: in both cases, Ana Gomes and André Ventura get 7% and 6% of the respondents’ options.
In addition to these three names, Marisa Matias is also a choice of some voters in all the proven scenarios, but always in a very residual way. João Ferreira, Tiago Mayan Gonçalves and Vitorino Silva are never the choice of those surveyed, whatever the scenario is placed on the table.
They are, of course, hypothetical scenarios. In any case – and this is evidenced through the analysis of the results of the Observer / TVI / Pythagorean survey – Marcelo is the “man of reference”, the first option for the vast majority of respondents, taking into account the hypotheses previous. table for the presidential elections on January 24.
Data sheet
For 6 weeks (December 10, 2020 to January 21, 2020), TVI and the Observer will publish a poll each week with a minimum sample of 626 interviews. Each week the sample will correspond to 2 subsamples of 313 interviews. One of the subsamples will be collected in the week of publication and the other in the week prior to publication. Each subsample will be representative of the Portuguese electoral universe (not probabilistic) according to the criteria of gender, age and region.
Publication Week 1: The fieldwork was carried out between December 10 and 13. A total sample of 629 interviews was collected which, for a confidence level of 95.5%, corresponds to a maximum margin of error of ± 4.0%. The selection of the respondents was made through the random generation of “mobile phone” numbers, maintaining the proportion of the 3 main operators identified by the ANACOM report, whenever necessary, fixed numbers are randomly selected to support compliance with the plan Of sampling. Interviews are collected through telephone interviews (CATI – Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing).
The study aims to evaluate the opinion of Portuguese voters on issues related to the elections, namely the main protagonists, the moments of the campaign, as well as the intention to vote in the different parties. The response rate was 55.32%. The technical direction of the study is in charge of Rita Marques da Silva.
The abstention rate for the survey is 56.6%, which corresponds to those interviewed who initially refused to answer the interview because they did not intend to vote in this election.
The complete technical file as well as all the results were made available to the Regulatory Body of Social Communication, which will make them available for online consultation in due course.
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