[ad_1]
Unbeatable in the first round and relegating the rivals to a distant level as if it were another championship – the survey of the Center for Studies and Surveys of the Portuguese Catholic University (CESOP) for PUBLIC and RTP confirms what all the studies of opinion published this year: if the presidential elections were now Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, he would be reelected president of the Republic without hesitation for a second term in Belém.
In this survey, which obtained 1,315 valid consultations, the estimate points to the reelection of Marcelo with 68% of the votes, after the distribution of undecided and non-respondents on the direct intention to vote for the current president, expressed by 45% of the participants.
All the other candidates are a long way off: Ana Gomes guarantees second place, with 13% of the votes, a secure position against André Ventura, who collects 8% of the voting intentions, outside the margin of error that is of 2.7. %. João Ferreira, the PCP candidate, and Marisa Matias, of the BE, obtained 5% of the voting intentions, while Tiago Mayan Gonçalves, of the Liberal Initiative, remained at 1%.
The results of this survey are above the latest opinion polls published this year, carried out by different entities. With the exception of Eurosondagem’s research for the newspaper Sun and several media carried out in May, which gave him 70.7% of the voting intentions, in recent months the highest percentage that Marcelo reached was 65% verified in October in an ICS / ISCTE survey for SIC and the Quick.
But beware: “When interpreting these results, it is important to bear in mind that, due to the surveys of previous elections, it can be expected that until the elections the percentage of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will decrease, increasing that of other candidates”, warns the official of this study, João António.
As he recalls, in December 2015, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa collected, in the CESOP survey, 62% of the voting intentions and was elected with 52%. And in October 2010, Cavaco Silva collected 63% of the voting estimates in a CESOP study and ended up re-elected, in January 2011, with 53%. If the trend is confirmed, Marcelo could be re-elected with less than 60% of the votes. Still, it will represent an increase in the percentage of votes with which he was elected in 2016.
Vows of all colors
Another relevant data is the origin of the voting intentions by party, which reveals that Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is the preferred candidate of the voters of the PSD (69%), PS (66%), CDS-PP (58%), but also from supporters of two parties that have their own candidates: BE and IL.
BE voters surveyed in this poll who have already decided to vote even prefer Marcelo over Marisa Matias (28% versus 13%), although there are 31% of these voters who have not yet decided who to vote for. The bloc’s candidate loses, among BE voters, also against Ana Gomes, who collects 17% of the voting intentions in this universe. A curiosity: 2% of blocking voters express intention to vote for André Ventura.
In the field of the Liberal Initiative, Marcelo also collects the highest proportion of voting intentions (30%), double that of the liberal candidate Tiago Mayan Gonçalves and as many as those who say they vote blank or null (15%). More than a quarter of the Liberals have not yet made up their minds (27%) and there is 6% who prefer Ana Gomes.
In the PS, Marcelo collects 66% of the voting intentions, while the former socialist MEP Ana Gomes stands at 7%, but there is still 19% undecided. In the PSD, the party of origin of the current president, in addition to the 69% who vote for Marcelo, there are 4% who prefer André Ventura, 3% who elect Ana Gomes and 1% who prefer Marisa Matias (there are 16 % undecided).
In the center-right spectrum, the CDS is the party that has the most doubts about the direction of the vote: 32% have not yet decided who to vote for, despite the fact that Marcelo collects 58% of the voting intentions. Ana Gomes and André Ventura collect 5% of each of the voting intentions.
PAN voters are more indecisive than centrists: despite declared support for Ana Gomes, only 5% say they will vote for the socialist and 55% do not know which candidate to choose. Marisa Matias is the favorite of this universe (23%) and Marcelo is in second place, with 18%.
At the CDU, João Ferreira wins but does not crush: he accumulates 38% of voting intentions, only five percentage points more than Marcelo (33%). And 27% still don’t know who to vote for. In Chega, things are clearer: 72% of the voters of this party say they vote for its leader, André Ventura, but Marcelo steals 13% and there are so many undecided.
When asked about their intention to vote on January 24, 66% of those surveyed said they would vote confidently and 71% said they are not afraid to go to the polls due to the pandemic. In fact, 91% of those surveyed rule out the possibility of not voting for fear of being infected in the voting process.
