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Solid as a rock, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (61.4%) maintains a 46-point lead over Ana Gomes (15.4%). And he has more than two-thirds of the Socialist voters in his pocket again. The biggest novelty of the latest Aximage barometer for DN, the JN and the TSF is, therefore, the promotion of João Ferreira (7.5%), who disputes the third place with André Ventura (8%). Further down are Marisa Matias (5.6%) and Tiago Mayan (1.1%). Abstention, however, could be the big winner of the presidential elections on January 24, with 61.5%.
Be careful that victory is only sung when the polls close. But the current president of the Republic can already anticipate the celebrations, and not only because of the electoral projection attributed to him. The Portuguese were also asked this month for an evaluation of Marcelo’s five-year period, and the answer is enlightening: 70% say that the performance was “good” (53%) or “very good” (17%). A small 11% give a negative score (“bad” or “very bad”).
High figures, especially among Socialist voters (88% positive evaluations), who are more satisfied with the first Marcelista consulate than PSD voters (81%). Note that the current president has a positive balance even among those who would vote for the three candidates on the left. The negative balance is limited to the radical and liberal right.
Socialists and Marcelists
Socialist satisfaction becomes fundamental when it becomes electoral support. Marcelo has the vote, at this point, of 68% of Socialist voters, a proportion that is repeated for the third time in three months. Former MEP and socialist activist Ana Gomes only convinces a quarter of socialists, which helps explain her weak projection (one point lower from November to December). A problem that also affects Marisa Matias: she retains less than half of the BE electorate and has no capacity to attract other parties. On the contrary, the socialist will seek a quarter of the bloc supporters.
The two largest increases in the December survey (fieldwork was carried out in the days leading up to Christmas, before the start of television games) are those of João Ferreira and André Ventura, especially the communist (plus 5.4 points ), which seems to have finally awakened the electorate of the CDU, on which it depends almost entirely. The same happens with André Ventura (1.4 points more), who is anchored in Chega.
Furthermore, as the technical director of the survey explains, around 94% of PS voters have already decided their vote and, consequently, will have a marginal influence, from now on, in modifying the electoral results. On the contrary, adds José Almeida Ribeiro, “the ability to attract PSD voters will be one of the most interesting political points of this election and, probably, the most important factor in the relative position of the different candidates.”
Abstention will be high
The disturbing factor may also be the high level of abstention. In Marcelo’s first term in 2016, it reached 51%. Everything indicates that it will be much higher in 2021: around 61.5%.
An explanation of the demobilization can be found in the results to the question about the importance of these presidential elections: 43% admit that it is “great”, but they are ten percentage points less than the result of November. On the contrary, those who answered that it has “little” or “no” importance are now 17% (one percentage point more).
The most committed seem to be the voters of Marcelo and Ventura: 76% and 68% respond, respectively, that the importance of the elections is “great.” At the opposite extreme, unsurprisingly, are the abstentionists: 27% think that these presidential elections are not important.
Marcelo’s personality and Ventura’s breakup
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and Ana Gomes are the candidates in which the most important characteristic when deciding the vote is personality (39% and 38% respectively). Marisa Matias and João Ferreira are most elected for political proposals (33% and 31%). André Ventura is the candidate of great advance (44%). These are the main reasons for the presidential vote, according to the Aximage poll for DN, the JN and TSF. Whether it is the current tenant of Belém or its main adversary, the main reason for the voters’ choice is clearly personality. It is the characteristic that brings them closer. What best distinguishes them are the political proposals, since they have little weight among the Marcelistas (12.6%), but are worth enough for a considerable slice of sympathizers of the Socialists (27%). The latter is also a characteristic common to candidates from the left, not so much from the center to the right. João Ferreira also stands out for two reasons with greater weight than in other candidates: the partisan origin of the party (13%), but also the “exclusion of parties”, that is, in a free interpretation, being the least bad of the candidates ( twenty%). Those closest to this issue are Marcelo and Ana Gomes (16%). If the current president would always be the only one who guarantees continuity (and for 30% of his voters this is essential), the candidate of the radical right, André Ventura, is the one who best represents the break (44% present this reason as primordial).
Voters prefer a progressive leader to a conservative
The Portuguese clearly prefer a modest president (84%) to a proud one (13%). Or from progressive (73%) to conservative (17%). But the boundaries are not so clear when it comes to choosing between a thoughtful (59%) or a courageous (37%) president. And division is the norm if you need to choose a calm (48%) or energetic (47%) personality.
The Aximage barometer for DN, JN and TSF confronted the Portuguese with ten pairs of characteristics that outline the profile of the ideal president. There are results that are not surprising, such as the preference of a communicative president (87%) to a reserved one (9%), or the appreciation of a cultured leader (86%) to a technocrat (10%), or even, if we have in consider the nature of the function, a mediator (81%) instead of a judge (15%).
But, even when the results are quite unbalanced in the overall assessment, some significant variations in the different segments of the sample stand out. This is the case of the conservative president, elected by 17% of the electorate in general, but which is of great importance, both for potential voters of Ventura (29%) and Marcelo (25%), and for those who vote for Chega (38%) and PSD (30%).
Some differences between the extremes are also significant. For those who lean towards the radical right-wing party, an austere personality (48%) is almost as valuable as tolerance (50%). But for a communist João Ferreira voter, the question does not even arise, with tolerance as the primary value (95%).
