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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has even improved its forecasts for the world economy this year, but estimates released this week by the entity led by Kristalina Georgieva show a recession that remains deep (and unprecedented) due to the impact of the covert pandemic. 19.
In the Autumn Bulletin published on Tuesday, the IMF forecasts a 4.4% drop in the world economy in 2020, an improvement from the forecasts known in June, which pointed to a 4.9% drop. Even so, they are far more serious than the IMF predicted in April, when the world was experiencing “great lockdown” and that pointed to a 3% global recession.
If the forecasts for the world economy as a whole are now better, the same cannot be said for Portugal. The IMF points to a 10% drop in GDP in Portugal this year, when in June it estimated a less severe recession of 8%.
A Business collection of IMF estimates for the dozens of countries (or states) showing Portugal is in the restricted lot of 13 nations with which this year’s GDP decline is written in double digits.
Macao will have the worst performance (-52.3%), and other countries with a heavy dependence on tourism (such as Portugal) also appear on this negative list. On the map above (where only the largest economies are listed), Portugal appears on the same scale as Italy, Spain, Argentina, and India.
The Portuguese economy, taking into account the IMF forecasts, will have the third worst performance of the European Union in 2020, with France and Greece very close.
On the map above you can see the IMF forecasts for all European Union countries and the main world economies in 2020 and 2021. You can also compare with the estimates produced in April.
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