IPMA confirms snow as of tomorrow. Districts of Braga and Viana on yellow alert

For most of the Minho, unemployment appears to have peaked in 2020 between May and June. The exception, among the large municipalities, is Guimarães, which reached the highest number of unemployed (7,337) in September. Guimarães is also the municipality with the highest unemployment in the region. All the municipalities have more unemployed than in the same month of 2019, the variations range between 20 and 40%.

In Alto Minho’s largest city, Viana do Castelo, there were 1,702 unemployed in January this year. The figure even began to fall, in February there were 79 fewer unemployed enrolled in the Institute of Employment and Vocational Training (IEFP) but, in March, it soared. In the third month of the year, 2,094 people were registered in the municipality’s IEFP, 392 more than at the beginning of the year.

From that moment, which corresponds to the first restrictive measures to combat the pandemic – on March 18 the first state of emergency was promulgated -, it was always on the rise, until May. In that month, the highest number of registered unemployed this year, in Viana do Castelo, 2,791.

As of May, unemployment has been falling every month, there were 2,291 unemployed, in the last record, in October. This represents an upward variation of 34.6% compared to the first month of 2020, and an increase of 39.1% compared to the same month of 2019, in which 1,646 unemployed persons were registered in Viana do Castelo. Due to the resident population between 15 and 64 years of age, unemployment in Viana do Castelo is 4.1%, 3.1 percentage points less than the percentage projected by the National Institute of Statistics for the national group.

In the first month of 2020, the municipality of Barcelos registered 2,237 unemployed. As in Viana do Castelo, the number of unemployed registered in the IEFP began to decline in February (2,333). Also as a result of what happened in Viana, in March the number of unemployed began to rise and reached its peak in May (3,231).

Starting in May, there was a reduction, which was only disturbed by a new peak in August. The municipality arrived in October with 2,777 unemployed, 24.1% more than at the beginning of 2020. This means that Barcelos has the lowest unemployment rate (3.4%) among the large municipalities in the Miño region. Compared to the same month of 2019, when there were 2,184 enrolled in the Barcelos IEFP, there was a variation of over 27.1%.

Famalicão had the largest increase in the number of unemployed compared to January and October 2019

In Famalicão, the increase in unemployment did not even wait for the first measures against the pandemic. The year started with a record of 3,412 unemployed and, in February, it had already risen to 3,510. In March there were 4,136 and it was always growing until reaching the maximum value registered so far, in 2020, 5,027, in May.

Starting in May, the number of unemployed in Famalicão began to fall, but, as in Barcelos, it reached a new peak in August (4,942). Famalicão arrives in October, the last month for which there are records, with 4,731 unemployed, 1,319 more unemployed than in January, 296 less than in the worst month of the year. Famalicão registers an unemployment rate of 5.2%, ahead of Barcelos and Viana, the municipality is surpassed by Braga and Guimarães. Compared with the month of October 2019, in which there were 3,338, there is a variation of more than 41.7%. Regarding the figures for the first month of the year, the October record means a variation of 37.6% more, in absolute numbers there are more than 1,319 unemployed.

In Braga and Guimarães, unemployment figures behave differently from other municipalities in Minho. In Braga because, after starting to rise in March, the figures have remained constant upward, with small upward and downward variations. In Guimarães, unlike what happened in Viana do Castelo, Barcelos and Famalicão, the peak of the unemployment curve was not reached until September (7,337).

The IEFP of Braga registered 6,455 unemployed in the municipality in January. As in other municipalities, in February the figure dropped to 6,020 and, as in other territories, in March it began to rise. However, since crossing the barrier of 7,530 unemployed in April, the municipality has remained at these values: April (7,533), the highest in May (7,714), June (7,613), July (7,551), August ( 7,554), September (7,490) and October (7,531). Unlike the other counties, where the number of unemployed is lower now than in May or June – minus 354, in Barcelos, minus 296, in Famalicão – in Braga, the reduction was less, only 183 less than in May and two less than in April. In October last year, 6,298 unemployed were registered in the municipality of Braga, the variation, in October 2020, is higher than 1,233, that is, 19.5% more. Braga has the second highest unemployment rate in the region, among the municipalities in this comparison, 5.9%. Even so, the municipality has an unemployment rate 1.6 percentage points below the figure projected by the INE for the country.

Guimarães has the highest unemployment rate in the region

In Guimarães, the year began with 5,841 unemployed registered in the Employment Center, 59 less than in the same month of the previous year. In the second month of the year, as in almost all other municipalities, unemployment fell, there were 5,770 unemployed in Guimarães, in February. As in most cases, the figures began to rise in March (6,166) and peaked in May (6,981) but, unlike what happened in other counties, this figure was not the highest in the world. year. In the following two months, June and July, unemployment fell, however, after reaching 6,916 in July, it rose again in August (7,178) and reached the highest value of the year in September (7,337).

Between September and October unemployment fell again in Guimarães, in the last record there are 7,065 registered with the IEFP, 1,224 more than at the beginning of 2020, a variation of another 20.9%. This value means, depending on the resident population of working age, that there is an unemployment rate of 6.9% in the municipality, the worst of the large municipalities of Miño. When comparing the month of October 2020 with the same month of the previous year, the variation in unemployment is 25.5%, that is, another 1,439 unemployed.

In relation to people seeking a first job, the number is higher, in all municipalities of Minho, both compared to the first month of the year, compared to the same month of the previous year.

The INE confirms the drop in unemployment in September and October throughout the territory

According to figures published on November 30 by the INE, the unemployment rate in the country fell to 7.9% in September, 0.2 percentage points less than in August and 1.4 points more than in the same month of 2019, This is in line with the reduction in the number of registered in the Minho Employment Centers.

According to INE projections, provisional data also indicate that the unemployment rate (according to the concept of the International Labor Organization) continued to fall in October to 7.5%, 0.4 percentage points less than the previous year. previous month and one percentage point more than in the same month of 2019.

Analyzing the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on the results of the Employment Survey, the INE affirms that it is “visible in the final results of September (central month of the moving quarter that covers August, September and October), when compared with the values ​​for the month (August), the increase in the employed population and the decrease in the unemployed and inactive population ”.

The youth unemployment rate was estimated at 23.9% in October. This corresponds to a decrease of 0.4 percentage points in relation to the rate of September 2020. Among the large municipalities of Miño, however, there was only a decrease in the number of people seeking their first job, between September and October , in Viana do Castelo, although this indicator does not correspond exactly to youth unemployment (unemployed between 15 and 24 years old).

The INE points out that the public health measures taken since mid-March “affected the normal functioning of the labor market and, consequently, the monthly estimates of employment and unemployment.” The temporary closure of several companies, restrictions on the free movement of people and the closure of schools, which cause parents to stay home to take care of their children. These measurements and leave it caused distortions in the way people are statistically classified in relation to their work-related status.

“People previously classified as unemployed and people who actually lost their jobs were, from a statistical point of view, classified as inactive if they did not carry out an active job search, due to mobility restrictions, reduction or even interruption of the usual channels of employment. job. information on job offers as a consequence of the partial or even total closure of a very significant proportion of companies ”, reports the INE.

Even people who were previously classified as employed may have “fallen” into the group of unemployed or inactive, according to the criteria of the International Labor Organization. This may have been the case for people who were absent for more than three months from work and who, at the same time, received less than 50% of their usual salary.

The INE indicates that this analysis corresponds to a moment of reopening of the economy. With “the gradual process of deflation that began in May, several economic activities were reopened and, in the months covered by this highlight, there is no obligation of social isolation as restrictive as before, this will have allowed the fulfillment of the criteria of active search of employment. and availability to start working, essential for the transition between the inactive population and the unemployed population ”.

On November 8, a new state of emergency was decreed and, in the meantime, new restrictive measures. “Compared to the state of emergency enacted in March, these measures had a lesser impact on economic activities, the free movement of people and the availability to work due to the maintenance of classroom activities”, analyzes the INE.