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On the 49th day after the hundredth case reported, Portugal continues to slow down the pace of the total number of registered cases. The United States already has more than 1 million cases (200,000 have been reported in the past seven days) but they also appear to be decreasing the rate of spread. Like most countries that recorded 100 cases as long or longer than Portugal. Exceptions to this slowdown are Sweden, Singapore, Qatar, Bahrain and Japan..
Today Portugal had a variation of 1.2% in the number of cases, one percentage point less than yesterday. And this week we had a daily variation in new cases of less than 1% twice a day (on Monday it was 0.7% and on Wednesday it was 0.8). It was in this context that the world began to look to South Korea as an example, a country that even started with a very high number of cases, but ended up effectively controlling the outbreak.
The evolution of the number of people infected with Covid-19 in Portugal is notably less than the evolution observed in countries with a more serious situation, such as China, Italy, Spain or Iran.
(Sorry for the repetition, but this sentence is mandatory: these numbers are cyclical, the trend of stabilization or reduction that can be reversed at any time).
Let’s go to the absolute numbers: Portugal had 306 new cases today, 234 fewer than yesterday. The relationship between this indicator and daily variation allows us to assess whether the day was more positive or more negative with respect to the number of people infected, again, in the same phase of the outbreak. When we compare ourselves to other countries, as long as we have more than 100 cases, we see 4 countries with more optimistic indicators (marked in yellow). Japan showed high growth on day 48, which ends up reflecting the upward trend of the line in the evolution of cases in this group of countries.
As for the line that records deaths.At the point where we are, 41 days after the tenth death, the 1007 accumulated deaths in Portugal place us between Sweden and Indonesia. In fact, the route of the Portuguese line, in recent days, is not very different from the Indonesian line, Portugal has higher numbers but with very similar growth.
In accumulated values, a trend toward slowdown in the growth rate of the Portuguese curve, which maintains a comfortable distance from the lines that compare the outbreak in other countries. It should be noted that the number of deaths in Italy, at this stage, had already skyrocketed, as well as in Spain, France, China, Iran, the United Kingdom and most of the countries with which it is possible to make this comparison. Germany, Sweden, the United States and Canada are some of the countries that had a more positive situation than Portugal at the beginning of the outbreak but were unable to control the numbers in the same way.
But have we passed the worst moment? If you look at the graph below, where instead of analyzing the accumulated numbers, we average the values of the last seven days (which mitigates the effects of the days with abnormal peaks, whether they are high or low), we realize that The plateau we’ve been on for three weeks has shrunk more in the past few days.. If yesterday’s hike ended with five days of decline, we are still significantly lower than we were in early April. Sweden has had a gradual but upward trajectory and, at this stage, it already had a higher average number of new cases than Portugal.
Also in the daily deaths curve, the 18 deaths, published today, reduced the average of the last seven days from 27 to 22 and positively affected the Portuguese trend of the last week that showed a line that stubbornly did not go down.
