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The start of the covid-19 epidemic in Portugal was marked by the “massive spread of a variant of the virus SARS-CoV-2 characterized by a specific mutation in its main antigen, originating in Italy and causing at least 3,800 infections in Portugal, especially in the north of the country ”, he revealed this Monday, during the press conference on the situation of the pandemic in Portugal. the Secretary of State for Health, António Lacerda Sales.
The origin of the genetic variant is associated with the Lombardy region, in northern Italy.
These are the conclusions “More recent“ based on the study of the genetic diversity of the new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in Portugal, a national research project coordinated by the Doutor Ricardo Jorge National Institute of Health (INSA).
The coordinator of the project, João Paulo Gomes, who participated in the press conference, revealed, in turn, that it is “a study that is in the process of being concluded”, and the final results will be presented in two or three weeks . .
“We were able to verify that the beginning of the pandemic began with the introduction of a genetic variant from the Lombardy region and that it will have entered Portugal around February 20, in the North / Center region, in the industrial zone, and that it will have spread in a way that public health authorities cannot detect for possibly ten days. “
“This will have caused some transmission chains that then grew and, according to our estimates, by mid-April it will have led to about 3,800 cases of covid-19. In other words, one in four cases of covid-19 in Portugal, around April 9/10, will have been caused by this very specific genetic variant, “he added.
The researcher also pointed out that, “despite having a massive spread in the North and Central regions, the cases in which this variant was found in the Alentejo and South regions were very rare, which was due to the taking of sanitary measures very timely public ”. “We are talking about the second half of March, with the closure of schools, restaurants, borders and this has strangled the massive spread of this genetic variant to the rest of the country and it has practically disappeared,” he said.
1785 sequences of the SARS-CoV-2 genome were analyzed
À Lusa, the researcher João Paulo Gomes explains that the study has already analyzed 1785 sequences of the new coronavirus genome and reveals that “the onset of the pandemic in Portugal was characterized by the massive spread of a variant of SARS-CoV-2 with a specific mutation in the Spike protein”, which has been the subject of research and the main focus on vaccine development as they are responsible for binding the virus to human cells, allowing infection.
This D839Y variant of the SARS-CoV-2 will have entered Portugal “around February 20, associated with trips to Italy, specifically to the Lombardy region,” he added. “It will have circulated somewhat uncontrollably, or at least undetected in these areas of the country, and would have caused a massive spread and a series of transmission chains even before the first cases were reported in Portugal,” he said.
The first cases of covid-19 were reported on March 2, one associated with the Santo António Hospital and another with the São João Hospital, in Porto, but they are not linked to the D839Y. “So this started much earlier, we have no doubts,” said the INSA researcher.
Despite the identification of this genetic variant in 11 districts, it “simply did not spread” to the south of the country due to “the very strong, very strict” public health measures adopted “, including the sanitary fence in Ovar, which generated a sort of strangulation, to its original extent, ”he explained.
“During the exponential phase of the pandemic in Portugal, which was basically in March and in the first days of April, [a variante] it reached 33% of cases on certain days, 3% of all cases had this mutation, and in accumulated data, we calculate that on April 9 or 10, this mutation was present in approximately 4000 people with covid-19 “, He is stressed.
For the researcher, this can be “a great model” to understand how it all started, how the infection spreads and “how important are some measures taken at the right time”, with João Paulo Gomes to consider although if the measures had been “a little early they would have worked even better”, but at that time there was no data to justify them.
“Now, with these models and these results, we know that, in fact, a few days earlier, many chains of transmission, many hospitalizations, many infections in general would have been avoided,” he concludes, emphasizing that “this type of retrospective analysis, carried out to an unprecedented scale in Portugal, it can be used as a combat asset in future situations, be it in a second wave of covid-19, or in other possible epidemics ”.
The final results of the study, which will be presented in the coming weeks, “translate into the presentation of the number of presentations during the month of March of the new coronavirus in Portugal, their chronology, their origin, the fact that they have originated transmission chains or not and the framework that we can make in this scenario with the measures that were taken in the matter of public health and that today we know were effective ”, he highlighted . João Paulo Gomes at the press conference.
The study, financed within the framework of the first edition of the Research4Covid support program, has the participation of more than 60 hospitals / laboratories throughout the country.
