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There are still more than two weeks until the end of the year, but 2020 is already the year with the highest number of deaths in Portugal since 1949, in a phenomenon associated with the pandemic, as well as the aging of the population.
The accounts were made by TSF comparing the data from the mortality surveillance system of the General Health Directorate (daily data until Tuesday, December 10) with the historical records of the National Institute of Statistics (INE).
From January 1 to December 10, the Death Certificate Information System recorded around 115 thousand deaths in Portugal, more than in all of last year and also more than in any full year since 1949.
Five weeks of excess mortality
Data from the information system reveal three mortality peaks this year: a first in early April, a second in July and now a third that has lasted from late October until now, with the worsening of the pandemic.
According to the latest report from the National Institute of Health Dr. Ricardo Jorge, consulted by TSF, Portugal has had “excess mortality” for five consecutive weeks, since October 26.
Pandemic, health and aging
According to the DGS mortality information system, in the year-on-year comparison with 2019, until December 10, the 115 thousand deaths recorded so far represent an increase of around 9%.
This year, 2020, it has had around 9,000 more deaths so far than the same period in 2019, and remember, about 5,000 were directly caused by Covid-19.
There are several specialists and studies that associate the remaining mortality with the indirect effects of the pandemic, that is, the reduction or limitation of health care.
If by the end of December the increasing mortality rate remains at the same level that has been registered since the beginning of the year (+ 9%), 2020 should end with a total of more than 120 thousand deaths, something that has not happened since 1946 .
Despite the pandemic phenomenon that accelerated the increase in the number of deaths, the upward trend has already been felt in recent years, something that experts have associated with the aging of the Portuguese population that in recent decades has benefited from significant increases in average life expectancy.
The president of the Portuguese Demographic Association, Ana Alexandre Fernandes, details to TSF that 2020 will, in fact, be an unusual year in terms of deaths, but that probably does not mean that Covid-19 has caused a decrease in the average life expectancy .
“It will probably not affect because when deaths occur at very advanced ages, the average life expectancy is usually not affected. In other words, deaths arise within what people are supposed to die”, in the case of Portugal older 80 – There are “no lost years because the pandemic, unfortunately, affects older ages than younger ones,” explains the demographer, underlining that “this, yes, is a structural indicator.”
Ana Alexandre Fernandes is convinced that the increase in mortality in 2020, due to Covid-19, will be an abrupt but punctual increase.
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