Deaths from respiratory syndromes in 2020 are above the average of the last 10 years, according to data from Fiocruz | Coronavirus

5,580 exact deaths due to SARS were recorded until the 25th, when Brazil had 4,016 deaths due to Covid-19. The average between the years 2010 and 2019 is 2,019 SARS deaths.

SARS is a serious respiratory illness that requires hospitalization and is caused by viruses, be it the new coronavirus (Sars-CoV-2), Influenza (H1N1), or others. Hospitals report cases to the Ministry of Health, and Fiocruz consolidates and disseminates them through the Infogripe platform.

According to Fiocruz and the experts heard by the G1, the numbers indicate an underreporting of cases of Covid-19, a disease caused by the new coronavirus.

This year’s number exceeds what was recorded throughout 2019, when there were 3,811 SARS cases, and exceeds the entire period of 2016, when there was an H1N1 outbreak and 4,785 cases of the syndrome were recorded.

• Ministry says 1,200 deaths from respiratory syndromes are under investigation
• The study shows a significant increase in hospitalizations for respiratory syndromes and indicates an underreporting of Covid-19

Estimated under-reporting points

In addition to the data already recorded throughout the year, Fiocruz also performs projections based on the patterns of the respiratory syndrome.

According to these estimates, the indicated number is higher and would be 5,866 since March, considering the sum of what was verified in epidemiological weeks 10 (01 to 7/3) to 16 (19 to 25/4).

The columnist for G1 Hélio Gurovitz presented on Wednesday (22), first-hand, Fiocruz’s projections, pointing out that deaths in the country are underestimated, indicating underreporting.

Fiocruz’s estimation for this current projection is made with statistical analysis. It takes into account a series of factors within the SRAG standards in Brazil according to the records of the last years.

“The estimates take an average of growth (…). It is a statistical model that takes a story and shows a scenario, “says Marcelo Gomes, coordinator of Infogripe at Fiocruz.

The Infogripe coordinator also says that underreporting is “inherent.” “The data suggests more cases of Covid,” said Gomes. For Prado, the underreporting of deaths is due to two sources: “deaths in homes that do not reach the SRAG data system, and those that do not identify the coronavirus through tests, for example.”

According to Paulo Inácio Prado, who works with quantitative biology and is a member of the Covid-19 Observatory, the estimate is the best possible to predict the number of deaths in Brazil before the official inclusion of the data.

“They [Fiocruz] use a different technique that they developed. It is the best they can do with the data we have. They are a group of excellence, it is the best estimate you have, but it has a margin of error. And they always do it for the previous epidemiological week, and what is happening now we will only know next week. “

Methodology and interpretation of the data.

The data leaked by Fiocruz may be less than the figures published by the Ministry of Health. The reasons: The researchers use three symptoms for the inclusion of SARS cases: fever, cough or sore throat, and shortness of breath.

The ministry now includes patients with only one of the symptoms such as SARS. In addition, the ministry has updated the data daily, while the Fiocruz platform is fed once a week.

Fiocruz has seen a drop in the number of deaths in recent epidemiological weeks. According to Marcelo Gomes, coordinator of Infogripe at Fiocruz, hospitals and health units gradually aggregate the data and often take time to be included in the databases. Therefore, the indices fall, but over time all the figures are included.

Infogripe data also shows a significant increase in SARS hospitalizations this year in Brazil, compared to the average of the last decade.

Counting Fiocruz, Brazil had 44,700 SARS hospitalizationsvery above average since 2010 of 3,900 cases. Even in 2016, when there was an H1N1 outbreak, 32,800 cases were recorded during the 12 months of the year.

“The number of cases is very high. Completely out of the standard,” says Marcelo Gomes.

The reasons, according to him, are:

• There are more hospitalizations due to Covid-19
• And the speed with which the virus spreads is greater than in previous years (there is a “faster spread”)

A third factor, he says, is that the Fiocruz system began to receive more notifications from private hospitals. Therefore, this year’s comparison with previous ones is not perfect. But, according to Gomes, even discounting data from private hospitals, the increase would be significant.

“Another factor, whose contribution is not so great, is the fact that in recent years, those who reported mainly were practically only the public network. And this year, the private network also began to report. But the contribution is not so great like the others [fatores]”