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The flexibility of measures and care at Christmas time and the greater number of contacts between people could be the explanation for the high number of new infections registered this Thursday, defend the virologist Pedro Simas and the epidemiologist filipe Froes. There were 7,627 new cases, the highest since the start of the pandemic in Portugal. On Wednesday, 6,049 infections, which was the highest number in almost a month.
“This increase that is occurring may be due to the lack of evidence at Christmas time, which I doubt. If it does not have this effect it is due to the greater number of contacts. These are the two possible explanations ”, defended Pedro Simas heard by Lusa. Portugal has a “plateau with a daily average of 3,200 cases”, which “is very high, ten times greater than the summer plateau”. In other words: “There was never a greater risk of transmission” of the virus.
In the opinion of this expert, “the figures for this Thursday are still prior to Christmas, so the effect of Christmas and New Year will only be seen in January.” For the epidemiologist Filipe Froes, “they may already be a reflection of the Christmas season, a time in which many people devalued prevention and control measures, such as wearing a mask and avoiding social gatherings.” However, he corroborated, “Christmas was a week ago and there may still be an increase in the numbers in the coming days and the infections that may have occurred at Christmas, some mild or asymptomatic, may occur in subsequent days of transmission chains” , he warns.
Filipe Froes recalled that “there were people who had tests done days before Christmas and, based on this result, they thought they would be safer.” It considers that “they may have eased the adoption of preventive and control measures.” “The result [dos testes] It is only valid in a time window of a few hours and its performance did not justify, did not prevent, did not favor the flexibility of protection and control measures, that is, the tests gave a false sense of security ”, he explained.
Taking into account the latest figures, the two experts assumed that “the first days of January will present a high number of new cases.” “Today’s numbers [quinta-feira] they should make us reflect and we have one more reason to hold back on the New Year’s festivities and hold back in the coming days, ”says Filipe Froes.
Pedro Simas also defended that “vaccination is the beginning of the end, but it is a very important path” and, in his opinion, “it is the most important phase of all and there has never been a greater risk in Portugal and in the world”. . “Besides being on a very high plateau, the immunity of the population is very low. In Portugal, around 85% to 90% of people are susceptible, that is, the risk of transmission is very high. There has never been so much risk. The first quarter is vital to save human lives, you have to be very careful “, he defended.
Effect of the tests?
On Wednesday, to the PUBLIC, the infectious diseases doctor António Silva Graça advised caution when establishing this connection with the festive season, recalling another less visible indicator that may be the basis for this increase in infections.
“We cannot absolutely exclude that there may be a small interference [do Natal]But we must not forget that for almost four days there were almost no tests and that the availability of health professionals to carry out the notification is not the same. Therefore, it is likely that it is only the accumulation of cases diagnosed in the meantime and that there is no certain relationship, for now, with the Christmas period, “explained the infectious diseases specialist.
Prime Minister António Costa warned this Wednesday that it will only be possible to measure the impact of Christmas on the pandemic from the “second week of January.”
The number of deaths caused by the virus decreased slightly compared to Wednesday’s bulletin: 76 deaths were recorded, three fewer than in Wednesday’s epidemiological data. Wednesday’s 76 deaths bring the country’s death toll from the pandemic to 6906.
