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Researcher Baltazar Nunes said on Friday that there has been a “clear slowdown” in the covid-19 epidemic in recent weeks in Portugal, with the estimated risk of transmissibility at 1.10.
“The current situation regarding the transferability of the value of ‘R’ is, at this moment, at 1.10, but it is in a decreasing phase”, estimated the researcher from the National Institute of Health Ricardo Jorge (INSA) in the Eventual Commission to monitor the application of measures to respond to the covid-19 pandemic and the economic and social recovery process, where several specialists in public health were heard.
In response to the deputies on the epidemic situation in Portugal, the coordinator of the Epidemiological Investigations Unit of INSA affirmed that the risk of transmissibility is higher in the Lisbon region and the Tagus Valley, with 1.13, and the value more Low is in the Autonomous Community of the Azores, with 0.8, below 1, that is, in a decreasing phase.
Asked about what could happen from now on, the specialist stated that “everything indicates that, if this decrease in transmissibility continues,” this growth phase can be reversed in the coming weeks.
However, he warned, it depends entirely on the measures that are implemented, but more than that, on their effectiveness, their degree of implementation and the adoption by the population of the measures that are currently in force.
“At this time it is imperative to lower” the transmission of the disease and the number of cases in the population, he emphasized, justifying that with the incidence that currently exists, with the degree of transmissibility and the number of cases that exist. per day, “it is very difficult to apply any other type of less restrictive measures to combat in some way” the epidemic.
Baltazar Nunes explained that “the capacity to identify cases, all protection measures, even for the elderly population, becomes increasingly difficult with the increasing number of cases that exist in the population.”
As for how long the epidemic will last, the researcher said that it is a “very difficult” question to answer, but he cited the words of Jorge Torgal, a public health specialist, also heard in the commission: “It is a virus that will have to live with us and we with him for a long time ”.
“Our models indicate that it takes at least two months for some confinement or restriction of contact” to reduce cases of hospitalization in intensive care to less than 300.
“From that moment on, there are other measures that will begin to play a relevant role, such as vaccination, which we believe that by increasing vaccination coverage, especially in the most fragile populations, the impact of the epidemic can be reduced and later, when we achieve higher vaccination coverage in the general population then we can reduce the transmission of civility ”, declared Baltazar Nunes, noting that it will also depend on the effectiveness of the vaccines we have at this time.
According to the General Directorate of Health, 11,886 people have died in Portugal of the 698,583 confirmed cases of infection by covid-19.
