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It should be between November 20 and December 6 when the peak of this second wave of the outbreak of the new coronavirus in Portugal is reached. The estimate comes from Manuel Carmo Gomes, professor of Epidemiology at the Faculty of Sciences of the University of Lisbon, and one of the experts heard by the government, who has been following the evolution of the epidemiological crisis in Portugal.
To support his prediction, the expert points to the gradual decrease in the speed of transmission of the virus and the stabilization of R, the indicator that aims to define the average number of infections derived from contact with an infected person.. “When the R reaches [o valor] 1, we will be at the top “, he explains to” Correio da Manhã “. And he guarantees that the indicator is decreasing slightly afterwards, at the end of October, having been set at 1.24.
This is what allows you to estimate that the peak of this second wave can be reached between the end of November and the beginning of December. At that time, he says that the forecasts pointed to 3,200 hospitalized people, of which 2,745 will be in the infirmary and 456 in the intensive care units.
However, Manuel Carmo Gomes points out that these forecasts are not fixed and may change if there are new and larger outbreaks of the disease in the country. In addition, he adds that in these forecasts the impact of the new package of measures applied by the government in the context of the new state of emergency and whose effect will only be possible to measure in the coming days.
At least there is no question about this: “Until Christmas, we are going to ride a little roller coaster”, which means that you can see a succession of increases and decreases in daily new cases of infection.
In the last 24 hours, Portugal registered 76 more deaths and 6,035 new cases of infection by the new coronavirus. Starting this Monday, November 16, the most restrictive measures to combat the pandemic will cover 77 more municipalities, with the number of counties marked as high risk at 191. The complete list of affected counties can be consulted here.
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