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At a time when the risk of contagion with SARS-CoV-2 is very high in almost the entire country, the incidence data for the last two weeks released yesterday by the General Directorate of Health allows us to understand the most critical points . The data released by the DGS, which I analyzed, show that in the two-week period between October 28 and November 10 – information available -, 90 municipalities registered a cumulative incidence of 14 days at least double that of the 240 cases. per 100,000 inhabitants, defined internationally as a very high risk level and which was used by the Government to designate the municipalities subject to the strictest measures during the state of emergency, currently 191. Of these 90 municipalities where the level of contagion has been higher for 28 where the level of 960 cases per 100,000 inhabitants is exceeded, four times above the risk level. The highest incidences continue to occur in the north of the country, where the risk is much higher. Two counties in the Vale do Sousa area, where there has been the most explosive increase in cases in the last month, remain at the top of the municipalities with the highest risk, with a cumulative incidence more than ten times higher than the level of 240 cases per 100,000 population. The slowdown in new cases is, however, reflected in the figures. Paços de Ferreira, which had an incidence of 14 days higher than 4 thousand cases per 100 thousand inhabitants, appears in the information provided by the DGS, which has already collected part of the last week, with 3698 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants . According to information from ARS Norte released yesterday by the Lusa agency, although the region continues to register the highest incidence in the country, from the first to the second week of November, new cases have decreased in 16 municipalities in the region, among which there are those that registered the worst incidents (Lousada and Paços de Ferreira). In the Porto district there was also a slowdown in Amarante, Matosinhos, Paredes and Porto. According to information released yesterday by the DGS, all these municipalities remain in the group with the highest incidence (more than 960 cases per 100,000 inhabitants).
There are other regions that appear in the first places and that have not been mentioned as frequently as those of the Tâmega and Vale do Sousa areas, such as Vizela, Penafiel or Paredes, where the greatest hospital pressure has been experienced in recent weeks. This is the case of Manteigas, according to the DGS bulletin, with an incidence of 2,667 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (note that 3007 people live in this municipality, according to INE estimates for 2019, which requires fewer cases than in a more populated area to have greater incidents). Even so, this means that there has been a significant increase in the cases where the last information in the DGS bulletins (which no longer contained this data on October 26) were eight confirmed cases in the municipality.
The list of the ten municipalities with the highest incidence at the national level also includes Guimarães, Fafe, Santo Tirso and Belmonte, with Felgueiras (who came to be in the first places) now in eleventh place.
In the Lisbon region and the Tagus Valley, which after the North is the one that has registered the highest number of new cases in the country, the municipality with the highest cumulative incidence serving the population was Coruche, where in recent days there were already there have been reports of outbreaks at home and also in positive cases at school. An incidence of 801 cases per 10,000 inhabitants was recorded. In the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, the municipalities with the highest incidence are Lisbon, Cascais and Loures, at a level of 500 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, well below what has been experienced in recent weeks in the Porto Metropolitan Area. In Porto, the cumulative incidence in these two weeks was 1,149 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants, when in Lisbon it was 576. Sintra, which is the second most populated municipality in the country after Lisbon, registered a cumulative incidence of 459 cases new. for every 100,000 inhabitants in this period. Vila Nova de Gaia, which also has more than 300 thousand inhabitants and is the third most populated municipality in the country, had an incidence of 878 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants in this period.
Differentiated measures from next week
The Prime Minister has already announced that starting next week a schedule with different measures is planned in the municipalities with a more serious epidemiological situation, a framework that is being prepared by the Ministry of Health. According to what I learned, preparatory meetings have been held in which doctors involved in the hospital response are heard, where there is increasing pressure, and experts. Last week, the crisis office of the Order of Physicians defended the differentiation between the municipalities with the highest incidence, distinguishing between those with different levels of incidence. The order also proposed that the selective confinements be evaluated by NUT (territorial areas covering several counties, such as the Tâmega and Sousa area). In this scenario, the proposal was, for a minimum of two weeks in the areas with the worst epidemiological situation, to maintain the activity of the primary and secondary sectors, marketing only basic necessities and schools, but only nurseries and preschool and primary education. The distance education hypothesis for older students was predicted by the Ministry of Education for contingency situations but, so far, it has not been implemented in any part of the country. The Prime Minister highlighted yesterday the exemplary civic duty of the Portuguese during the first weekend with restrictions on movement in 121 municipalities, but there were no news about future measures, which were not addressed at the DGS conference, yesterday dedicated to issues techniques of the epidemic, not political, a distinction made to journalists at first. Filipe Froes, coordinator of the crisis office of the Order of Physicians, considered the disclosure of the incidence by municipality positive, reiterating the need to differentiate the municipalities that are above the highest risk level and also defending a NUT analysis . “We see more advantage in terms of intervention at the regional level by subregion than by municipality, and also distinguishing the different areas according to the level of risk,” says the doctor, also defending the need to differentiate more the municipalities with greater and less risk. “We have two realities at the moment in Portugal, below 240 and above 240, which means that only with this distinction we have little power to explain to people what is happening in their municipalities, and then we have measures that do not fit. situations like Paços de Ferreira, which is ten times above that level. We need greater transparency, greater involvement of people and more precise measures in the face of local realities, always with coherence ”, concludes the doctor. On the map of this edition, or indicates in darker colors the municipalities with a cumulative incidence of more than 480 cases, where the risk is higher at the national level.
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