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We hope that does not happen. But a Harvard University study concludes that without drugs to cure, without vaccines, and without developing natural immunity in people, measures against Covid-19 (such as social detachment) will continue to be adopted for a long time. weather
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By: Oasis Team
Most epidemiological studies on the future course of recent epidemics like SARS-VOC-2 cover only a few weeks, a few months at most. But, what evolutionary hypotheses can we consider for COVID-19, in the next 2-4 years? According to a model from the Harvard University School of Public Health on the spread of the new coronavirus disease in the United States, the current social contact blockade adopted across much of the planet will not be enough to make the pandemic a a distant memory. If COVID-19 behaves like other known corona viruses, it could slow down its operation in the northern hemisphere next summer, returning with an even more violent second wave in winter.
Will social distance become normal? It can be a rule of behavior that will last a long time.
In Brazil and throughout the southern hemisphere, the pandemic is expected to persist next winter and only cool down in the summer.) Without new tools to stop it, in the situation we are in now, intermittent social blockades may be necessary until 2022. However, the study, recently published in the scientific journal Science, is presented as a model of epidemiological projection and not as a absolute forecast. The authors themselves advise that, instead of focusing on the date – 2022 – with anguish, we should focus on possible solutions and understand how to work to avoid this eventuality.
Possible developments
To make their predictions, the researchers used two coronaviruses that cause common colds, called OC43 and HKU1. These pathogens have a seasonal pattern. If SARS-CoV-2 behaved like its “cousins,” COVID-19’s progression in the northern hemisphere could slow down with summer, but not enough to extinguish the chain of contagion. It would reappear in the winter and still have a large population that would become infected: the blocking measures that are saving lives today also ensure that many people do not get the infection now; But in the absence of a vaccine, these people would remain vulnerable in the event of a new outbreak of the epidemic. And this is just one of the variables taken into account. Another refers to the immunity acquired after infection and its duration; Another possibility is that the person has contracted an infection with other coronaviruses, and the acquired immunity may partially protect against COVID-19. If the immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in those who have already contracted the infection lasts for a year, we can expect annual waves of infections; If it lasted longer, we would have gradually less frequent epidemics of COVID-19. If the other coronaviruses offer a type of “cross immunity,” the disease should reappear in a progressively less severe and widespread manner.
Video: simulating an epidemic
Worst case
Assuming an R0 (the basic number of reproduction, that is, how many additional infections an individual with a virus produces) between 2 and 2.5 and assuming that social distance reduces the transmissibility of the virus by 60% and the summer by 40%, So, not to overload US hospitals. In the USA, physical distances should be maintained until mid-May, restored in August, and resumed again between October and the end of the year. And it’s not over yet: it must continue from February through April 2021, in June 2021, and for comparable periods of time in 2022 and beyond, until it reaches “collective immunity,” as they say in medical jargon.
This, it must be said, is the scenario that could be faced without the implantation of any contrast instrument other than blocking and immunity of the herd. However, by increasing the number of beds in intensive care units, these restrictions could be eased and terminated sooner, since a large part of the population would be vaccinated more quickly. Even if drugs were found for more serious cases of COVID-19 or a vaccine was created, the restrictions could be partially alleviated without saturating the capacity of health systems. The main message of this study is that the necessary efforts we are making will probably not be enough to completely eliminate the virus in a few months. With no progress in research and health care organization, new outbreaks are expected to occur with the relaxation of restrictions. For this reason, measures of social distance should continue alternately, along with other interventions. This information will be essential for policy makers: it is necessary to think about structural and long-term measures.
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