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The closure of schools, and the consequent decrease in mobility, and the more restrictive measures imposed by the Government since mid-January contributed to a more accelerated drop in the transmission rate of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, causing the effect of current closure is very important. close to the effect achieved with the confinement carried out in March and April of last year. In one week it was possible to reduce the transmissibility of the virus between 35% and 40%. It is still early to relax, but this greater compliance with the measures begins to reveal some impact on the numbers of the covid-19. Although hospitalizations and deaths remain high.
“To evaluate a containment, the important thing is to measure its effect. The effectiveness of a landfill is seen by the drop in the rate of transmissibility. This rate is the product of two elements: the contact rate – represented mainly by mobility – and the probability of transmission – represented by the characteristics of the virus and the protective barriers that we use, ”explains Pedro Simões Coelho, coordinator of Covid19 Insights to PUBLIC. . project, an initiative of NOVA IMS and COTEC.
To measure the effect of the current confinement, the reference was the average rate of decline in the virus’s transmissibility in March and April of last year. “We estimate that at the beginning of this confinement, this reduction in the transmissibility of the virus occurred at a rate that would be 30% of the rate that occurred in March and April. In other words, it was 30% of the effect achieved in the first confinement, ”says the specialist, referring to a period that goes from the second week of January until the closing of schools. As of that date, “this effect began and has progressively intensified and on that date we estimate that the effect of this confinement is around 90% that of March / April.”
What has changed to achieve this result, although since the beginning of January there has already been some reduction in the mobility that people have assumed, anticipating the closure decreed by the Government? “Until January 17, the presence in the workplace was still very strong. There was already a fall with respect to the reference level – average mobility in January and February 2020, when there was still no pandemic – from -11% to -26%, but now the fall exceeds 40% ”, he begins by explaining.
“As of the week in which the measures of the state of emergency were reinforced, there was a greater decrease in the presence in the workplaces, in the use of public transport, in the trips to commercial and restaurant areas. Schools are highly mobile. Only then do we go from a 30% to 40% reduction in the transfer rate to a situation where the drop is almost the same as in March. It’s rare that we have a situation where there is such an immediate effect, ”he says.
To better understand the effect, the experts compared the drop in the rate of transmission of the virus between the middle of the week that began on January 11 and ended on the 15th and the middle of the week that began on January 25 and ended on January 29. . “The change in containment measures, that is, those associated with the closure of classroom activities, and the consequent reduction in mobility will have contributed to reducing the virus transmissibility rate by between 35% and 40% in a week”.
The maximum prevalence is close
It is this change that now allows more favorable estimates than those obtained two weeks ago. Thus, the peak of prevalence is expected to occur these days, with about 182 thousand active cases. This number should drop to 160 thousand on February 7. Also for that day, the scenarios point to the existence of 5,900 people with hospitalized covid, of which 825 are in intensive care units. The maximum number of hospitalizations will have been reached on day 1 and the maximum in intensive care is likely to occur at the end of the week. As for deaths, the maximum will have been reached on January 30 with about 300 deaths a day.
But the country is still far from breathing relief, even though the Rt (transmission risk) is slightly below 1. According to estimates, this should only fall below 0.8 in the second half of this month and will be for that reason. The safety barrier of 5000 new daily cases must be reached. “The value of 50 new cases per 100 thousand inhabitants has been used by many as a barrier below which it is possible to have an adequate traceability of the cases and make an identification of the transmission chains. And, consequently, we have to do it as soon as possible ”, defends Pedro Simões Coelho.
The president of the Scientific Council of NOVA IMS also points out that the estimated number of hospitalizations, especially in intensive care, shows how the National Health Service (SNS) is approaching its maximum capacity, since the same criteria were used from previous phases of the pandemic, estimates would point to a higher number of hospitalized patients, around 200 in intensive care.
“This is one of the reasons why the confinement must continue in this severe way for some time. It is essential to maintain or intensify [a queda da transmissibilidade] for a while to avoid this situation of rupture and try to prevent this excess mortality from continuing ”, he reinforces, stating that if there is capacity to control the transmission chains and lower numbers, it may be progressively suspected. But always evaluating this impact so that a new growth of infections can be stopped.
