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Looking at national polls in the United States, it appears that Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden’s lead is large enough to believe that he will defeat the current president, Republican Donald Trump. However, as the Democrats, who have already lost other races in which they had more votes (Al Gore, Hillary Clinton), know very well, the history of national polls can be grossly exaggerated.
Saturday’s Reuters / Ipsos poll shows that despite Biden’s national advantage, the dispute over so-called states of oscillation, those whose final results are unpredictable and in the indirect system of election of the American head of state are too close for the Democrats to order the banner.
According to the figures of the opinion poll carried out on the internet, whose field work was carried out at the beginning of September and, as such, does not reflect the question of the occupation of the headquarters of the Supreme Court that left the death open on the 18th of the Judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Biden has a slight advantage in three of those states and is tied in three others.
In Florida and North Carolina, Trump and Biden are tied for those who say they will vote, while Biden leads by one percentage point in Arizona, three percent in Pennsylvania and five percent in Wisconsin and Michigan.
All six states are critical to winning the Nov. 3 election, considering the number of residents (reflected in the number of delegates they elect) and their record of unpredictability. In almost all of them the difference between the two candidates is within the margin of error, which presupposes a technical tie between the president and the former vice president.
The latest Reuters / Ipsos poll at the national level, conducted this Monday and Tuesday, places Joe Biden in the lead with an 8% difference from Trump.
According to polling experts, these figures show that the 2020 elections may end with the same result as the 2016 elections, in which Trump lost much of the national vote (almost three million fewer votes) but ended up winning. the Electoral College, with 304 delegates against 227.
In the USA, in addition to the fact that the election of the president is not direct, the election of the delegates is not proportional according to the percentage of votes, but what is called in English the The winner takes it allThat is, whoever wins, even if it does so by 0.1%, gets all the disputed delegates from the state. Hence the importance of states of oscillation in the presidential elections.
With Reuters
